Oscar Predictions 2018

Best Picture:

1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. Black Panther
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Blackkklansman
6. The Favourite
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice

Make no mistake: Roma is the favorite to take home the big prize tonight, but I just can’t wrap my head around it. A foreign language film has never won the Academy’s top honor, and there’s doubtlessly a portion of the voters who will be against a Netflix movie winning Best Picture on principle alone, given that home viewings don’t exactly drive the box office.

Bohemian Rhapsody, almost universally derided by critics and cinephiles alike, is the movie that simply won’t die, and the freight train that is Rami Malik’s Oscar campaign, combined with enormous popularity worldwide, make it impossible to count out. Same goes for Blackkklansman, given its timely subject matter, and widespread sentiment that Spike Lee is deserved his long-delayed due. Black Panther’s global domination dwarfs all competition by a sizable margin, and electing a superhero movie as 2018’s champion would mark a sea-change in the way this ceremony is viewed, which could appeal to some of the newer voters.

But I’m going the complete opposite direction. Green Book is all the things movie obsessives chide the Oscars for always championing: an “important film” with a simplistic view point on complicated issues. Many have presumed its chances as DOA after the slew of controversies its had to weather over the last couple months, from claims of fabrication to the unsavory actions of several of its creators. I can’t help but wonder if all this might have actually bolstered its chances, prompting a slew of Hollywood power players to buck back against being told what they should and shouldn’t vote for. It was already a questionable choice when the PGA (the “Best Picture” guild) gave Green Book its top prize; why are we all assuming they’ve since changed their minds?

I know I’m going out on a limb, but I just can’t shake the feeling that Roma is too radical a choice, and Green Book strikes me as the most likely alternative. The last three movies here are just along for the ride.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuaron—Roma
2. Spike Lee—Blackkklansman
3. Adam McKay—Vice
4. Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
5. Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War

After my Best Picture rant, let me keep this one short and sweet: Cuaron has this one in the bag. Spike Lee’s status as an overdue legend gives him a sliver of a chance, but this is truly one of the biggest locks of the night.

Best Actress:

1. Glenn Close—The Wife
2. Olivia Coleman—The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga—A Star is Born
4. Yalitza Aparicio—Roma
5. Melissa McCarthy—Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Cuaron is a big lock, then Close is bigger, as she currently claims the most nominations ever for a thespian without a golden man to show for it. Coleman’s there if Oscar wants to get frisky, but this is basically a done deal.

Best Actor:

1. Rami Malik—Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale—Vice
3. Bradley Cooper—A Star is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen—Green Book
5. Willem Defoe—At Eternity’s Gate

From big to bigger to biggest. Malik’s strangle-hold on this statuette is so white-knuckled that Bohemian Rhapsody received a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble... and no one can even remember another performance in the movie. Given his parent movie’s poor reviews, it almost feels like they nominated Rami Malik, not Bohemian Rhapsody, for Best Picture. Treating this performance like Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but that’s where we are.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams—Vice
2. Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Rachel Weisz—The Favourite
4. Emma Stone—The Favourite
5. Marina de Tavira—Roma

Besides Best Picture, this is my other truly off-the-rails pick. King has been the presumptive favorite for months, but wasn’t even nominated by her own peers at SAG, something that calls to mind Sly Stallone’s last second collapse for Creed a few years ago. As the BAFTA winner, Weisz would seem to be next in line, but she already has an Oscar, as does her co-star Emma Stone, and starring in the same movie might have caused a vote split anyway. That leaves Adams and her five previous nominations without a win to show for her efforts, representing a movie that Oscar obviously loves. Without a clear-cut choice, I’m betting on the “she’s due” narrative to win the day.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali—Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Sam Elliot—A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver—Blackkklansman
5. Sam Rockwell—Vice

Ali has won literally everything leading up to tonight, and seeing him unseated would be stunning. That said, Grant has hit the campaign trail with a head full of steam, and is beloved within the industry. He’s a dark horse, but only if you squint.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. First Reformed
4. Roma
5. Vice

This will be one of the most telling moments of the night. Original Screenplay has been The Favourite’s to lose for months now, and it’s incredibly rare for a film with ten nominations to go home without a major award. That’s why a Green Book win here would be a neon sign pointing to my Best Picture upset predicted above. I’m still going with chalk, but wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see 2018’s Driving Miss Daisy steal this one at the last second. There’s also a left field chance that Paul Schrader, the never-before nominated writer behind Taxi Driver and Raging Bull, can sneak in for First Reformed, but a wouldn’t bet any currency on it.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Blackkklansman
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. A Star is Born

Spike Lee isn’t getting any younger, and if Oscar finally wants to send him home with something golden, this seems like the place to do it. Can You Ever Forgive Me?’s win at the WGA makes it a viable competitor, but this mostly seems like a lay-up in terms of avoiding bad press.

Best Foreign Feature:

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Never Look Away
5. Capernaum

Man, how crazy would it be if Roma, the presumptive Best Picture favorite, couldn’t win in this category? That said, Pawel Pawlikowski’s surprise Best Director nomination means Cold War is an Academy favorite, laying the groundwork for a shocking upset.

Best Documentary Feature:

1. Free Solo
2. RBG
3. Minding the Gap
4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
5. Of Fathers and Sons

Truly bizarre to not see Won’t You Be My Neighbor? or Three Identical Strangers on this list. With those two sizable omissions, Free Solo and RBG are the two remaining box office hits in the race, and the visceral, must-be-seen-in-theaters nature of the former should give it the slight edge. Minding the Gap’s status as a deeply beloved feature in some impassioned circles keeps its chances alive, but I’m playing it safe.

Best Animated Feature:

1. Spider-man: Into the Spiderverse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai

After Malik and Close, this is the biggest lock of the night. Incredibles’ Pixar branding makes it the obvious next in line, but there’s really no use over-thinking this pick.

Best Cinematography:

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. The Favourite
4. A Star is Born
5. Never Look Away

Roma is in the driver’s seat of the Best Picture race, and its cinematography is its single strongest element. Cold War and The Favourite are too gorgeous to count out, but either would represent a stunning upset.

Best Editing:

1. Vice
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. Blackkklansman

Much like Best Adapted Screenplay, this is a category to keep an eye on if the tides start to turn. Vice has the most editing, and most and best are often the same when it comes to the Oscars. Bohemian Rhapsody somehow won this award at the editor’s guild, making it next in line, but if Green Book, who has absolutely no business among these five, manages to steal this one, we might as well just hand it Best Picture.

Best Production Design:

1. Black Panther
2. The Favourite
3. Roma
4. First Man 
5. Mary Poppins Returns

All signs point to The Favourite snagging this one, but I struggle to see Black Panther, after finally making the Superhero breakthrough at the Oscars, being sent home with nothing, and this and the next category are clearly its best chances.

Best Costume Design:

1. The Favourite 
2. Black Panther 
3. Mary Poppins Returns 
4. Mary Queen of Scots 
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

As implied above, this is a two horse race between The Favourite and Black Panther, and try as I might, I just can’t see the Academy passing up period costumes... like ever.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling:

1. Vice 
2. Mary Queen of Scots 
3. Border

What a stupid category; consistently having only three nominees when literally every other category (besides Best Picture) has five is just ridiculous, especially when only one nominee has serious representation in the rest of the show. I take back everything I said earlier; this is the true lock of the night.

Best Original Score:

1. If Beale Street Could Talk 
2. Blackkklansman 
3. Black Panther 
4. Mary Poppins Returns 
5. Isle of Dogs

Listen, Terence Blanchard’s lack of Academy recognition after an incredible career keeps Blackkklansman in the conversation, but have you heard the Beale Street score? It practically melts in your ears.

Best Original Song:

1. Shallow—A Star is Born 
2. All the Stars—Black Panther 
3. I’ll Fight—RBG 
4. When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings—The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 
5. The Place Where Lost Things Go—Mary Poppins Returns

Once upon a time, certain prognosticators, *cough* me *cough, thought Best Picture was A Star is Born’s to lose. Original Song appears to be all that’s left in the ashes of that dashed campaign, and while the Kendrick Lamar if it all made All the Stars seem like a hot upset pick, the fact that Black Panther’s entrant will be the only song not performed live tonight all but assure Bradley Cooper will receive the silliest consultation prize imaginable.

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avengers: Infinity War 
2. First Man 
3. Ready Player One 
4. Christopher Robin 
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

It’s almost unbelievable considering all of Black Panther’s nominations, but Marvel Studios have yet to win a single Oscar. Infinity War took home the grade prize at the effects guild, but it’s far from a lock given that this award almost always gets allotted to something less... let’s say... computer generated, making First Man the obvious sleeper

Best Sound Editing:

1. A Quiet Place
2. First Man
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Black Panther
5. Roma

This seems like such an obvious First Man win, but A Quiet Place has such a simple case to make (look mom, no noise!) that I can’t help but think voters will mark it down. It literally has volume in its name!

Best Sound Mixing:

1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. A Star is Born
5. Roma

Essentially a movie musical with concert-level sounds and a deft blurring of Malik and Mercury’s voices; this might just be too good to pass up.

If I Ran the Oscars 2017

Best Sound Editing:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Kong: Skull Island
4. Dunkirk
5. War for the Planet of the Apes

       Sound Editing is the literal sounds themselves, and the craft behind their creation. All the movies listed here are accomplished, but the textured nature of what Blade Runner 2049 does to your ears earns my vote.

Best Sound Mixing:
1. Baby Driver
2. Dunkirk
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Wonderstruck

        Sound Mixing is all about audio levels and synchronizing. If you've seen the action-packed, soundtrack-indulgent wonderland that is Baby Driver, I probably don't need to explain any further.

Best Make-up and Hairstyling:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
2. The Shape of Water
3. The Darkest Hour

        Sure, we're just gonna dust this one off from the last Guardians that came out and was robbed of this award in 2014. Water's Fish Man looks great, and as far as fat suits go, Darkest Hour's is top notch. But I'm headed to space with this one.

Best Costume Design:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Lost City of Z
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Beguiled
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

        Not only are Phantom Thread's costumes gorgeous and immaculate, but the whole movie would fall apart if they were any less tactile and sublime. The fabrics practically leap off the screen.

Best Special Effects:
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Kong: Skull Island

         It feels like a retread handing this one to yet another Apes movie, especially when 2049's effects are so diverse and astounding, but War marks yet another giant leap in motion capture technology, Caesar never looking any less real than Woody Harrelson.

Best Original Score:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Dunkirk
3. Coco
4. The Shape of Water
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

        This one is honestly close for me, as the top four entrants all have strong cases to be the winner (sorry John Williams, I guess you'll just have to be content with your shelf full of Oscars). Water truly has a lovely, romantic score, and Coco's original songs give the movie its emotional core. In any other year, they might be the picks, but I have to narrow this one down to the two compositions that most influenced the way we watched their respective films. Hans Zimmer's ticking clock of a score ratchets up tension to almost unbearable degrees, but Johnny Greenwood's Phantom Thread numbers are a massage to the ears that add to the movie's lavish nature, and get the nod because I'd actually listen to them outside of the viewing experience.

Best Production Design:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
4. Dunkirk
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

        As many shots as I like to take at The Shape of Water, its production design is truly jaw-dropping, and by far my favorite single element of the movie. That said, Blade Runner 2049 is one of the most impressively mounted futuristic epics you'll ever see, entirely too immense and atmospheric and beautiful to pass up.

Best Editing:
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. Lady Bird
4. John Wick Chapter 2
5. I, Tonya

        Shouts to Lady Bird, whose razor-sharp editing still hasn't gotten enough credit for propelling the film, but this one has to be a two-horse race. The action scenes in Baby Driver are kinetic and electric, but Dunkirk maintains momentum through nearly two hours while the intensity only rises. That doesn't happen unless you make the right cut just about every time out.

Best Cinematography:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Lost City of Z
4. Good Time
5. Columbus

         Something feels wrong about not just handing Roger Deakins every prize ever, but as alluded to above, his stellar work on Blade Runner is almost difficult to untangle from the astounding production elements. A quick aside about my 3-5 picks, as none were ever even considered for Oscar: The lush jungles and shadowy hallways in Britain are more than enough to tickle the pupils in Lost City of Z, as are the hypnotizing symmetry of Columbus, and the neon-splattered madness of Good Time. But I'm going with the sheer feat of filming all of Dunkirk's war-time mania with the grandeur (and the hassle) that IMAX cameras provide. It has the literal look of a classic film.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Last Flag Flying
2. Lost City of Z
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Wonder Woman
5. The Killing of a Sacred Deer (yes, I know I'm cheating)

        I sneered on Oscar nomination morning when I saw the line-up of Adapted Screenplay nominees, especially the inclusion of The Disaster Artist, whose script is the main thing holding it back. Then I tried to make my own list, and... let's say I'm a little more sympathetic. This is a race between the top two (Wonder Woman would be higher if not for the entire Ares plot line), and while I enjoy the ambition and expanse of Lost City of Z, Last Flag Flying takes a tragic premise and finds a way to include humor, rage, nostalgia, and humanity. P.S. Sacred Deer is based on an ancient Greek myth. Fight me about it.

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Get Out
2. Phantom Thread
3. Coco
4. The Square
5. Lady Bird

        Never has a category been so stacked, and yet the winner so obvious. These are all tremendous feats of screen writing in such a wonderful number of different ways, but Get Out is a tight-rope act, mashing so many familiar yet oddly-fitting elements into a narrative that not only functions, but lodges itself into the brain of nearly everyone who sees it.

Best Ensamble:
1. Phantom Thread
2. The Florida Project
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Good Time

        The only category I add every year because I simply can't make sense of why the Oscars wouldn't include it (notice I subtracted seven others), every movie here has tremendous performances from top to bottom. The untrained actors that constitute the bulk of The Florida Project's cast have the desired effect of making every single moment appear more like a documentary than a narrative film, but the three-headed monster of Daniel Day-Lewis, Vicky Krieps, and Lesley Manville simply cannot be beaten.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Chris Pine---Wonder Woman
2. Barry Keoghan---Killing of a Sacred Deer
3. Lawrence Fishburne---Last Flag Flying
4. Michael Stuhlbarg---Call Me By Your Name
5. Benny Safdie---Good Time

         Let me be candid; the Best Supporting Actor crop from last night's ceremony was astonishingly bad. We're starting out fresh, and including Safdie's emotionally riveting portrayal of mental illness, Stuhlbarg's laid-back intellectual and his tear-jerking Oscar reel speech, and Keoghan's chilling sociopath. But Pine's work is Wonder Woman is the stuff that movie stars are made of; charming, funny, charismatic, sexy, and lovable enough to get the water works going as the film nears its conclusion. People tend to look past performances with this amount of inherent star wattage, but there are plenty of thespians who can get down and dirty with their 'craft,' and precious few who could pull this off. And yes, Fishburne is category fraud, but it's the kind Oscar commits all the time, so I'm running with it.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Laurie Metcalf---Lady Bird
2. Lesley Manville---Phantom Thread
3. Michelle Pfiffer---mother!
4. Betty Gabriel---Get Out
5. Catherine Keener---Get Out

        Keener and Gabriel might have limited screen time compared to their combatants, but they each power a scene or two that will remain iconic for years to come. Pfiffer is just having a blast, seemingly the only one attuned to the gaudy nature of the film she's acting in. Manville is a lioness, controlling and commanding without ever raising her voice beyond a hush. But come on, this is Metcalf's award, one of the most believable and lived-in screen mothers we'll ever see, a mixture of tenderness and judgment that never fails to ring true.

Best Actor:
1. Daniel Kaluuya---Get Out
2. Daniel Day-Lewis---Phantom Thread
3. Robert Pattinson---Good Time
4. Steve Carell---Last Flag Flying
5. Claes Bang---The Square

        Bang is self-effacing and hilarious, yet maintains enough dignity to serve as our guide through his film's crazy world, while Carell's soft-spoken suffering would rather let his eyes and tone of voice lead us. Pattinson acts like he's wearing a jacket made of fire in Good Time, a rabid maniac of a performance that couldn't be better juxtaposed against Day-Lewis' exacting, ego-centric portrayal of pomp and circumstance incarnate. But similar to Pine, I can't help but be swayed by a movie star performance, Kaluuya's captivating presence and endless emotional range providing the key that unlocks Get Out.

Best Actress:
1. Vicky Krieps---Phantom Thread
2. Haley Lu Richardson---Columbus
3. Margot Robbie---I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins---The Shape of Water
5. Saoirse Ronan---Lady Bird

        Hawkins has always been a lively performer, and sticking her in her very own silent film showed us just home much expression she can wring out of her body and face. Robbie doesn't have to wring anything out; she's given an actor's dream of a canvas to work with, portraying a character through three+ decades of life without ever seeming false. Ronan and Richardson are playing young women at a crossroads, and carry with them all the elation and fear and desire that that entails... but what's that saying from The Wire? You come at the king, and you best not miss? Krieps goes toe-to-toe with one of the great actors of all time and doesn't even budge, a paramour at first just happy to be seen who slowly realizes all that she deserves, and just how to take it.

Best Director:
1. Christopher Nolan---Dunkrik
2. Sean Baker---The Florida Project
3. James Grey---Lost City of Z
4. Denis Villenuve---Blade Runner 2049
5. Jordan Peele---Get Out

        Playing in a decidedly smaller sandbox than his competition, Peele crafts a classic from the ground-up, shaping images and coaxing performances that will remain in the popular imagination until the end of time. Villenuve and Grey made all-out epics, the size and scope of their offerings just as spell-binding as the grace with which they execute their visions. They create world to venture into, while Baker takes something recognizable and dingy, but puts it through a kaleidoscope where there's beauty and fun residing right next to pain and compromise (and does so while guiding some of the year's best performances from untrained actors). They're all great, but none reached the purely cinematic level of achievement that Nolan did, crafting a war epic unlike any other, and holding audiences in a vice grip from start to finish.

Best Picture:
1. Dunkirk
2. Get Out
3. Lost City of Z
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Phantom Thread
6. The Florida Project
7. Coco

        I like Oscar's tactic of nominating anywhere between five and ten films, and only wish they would use the entirety of the scale more often. These are the seven films that affected me most deeply from last year, wether it be emotionally (Coco and The Florida Project), intellectual (Get Out and Phantom Thread) or by the sheer majesty of cinema (Lost City of Z and Blade Runner 2049). But I will never forget how bafflingly intense my first exposure to Dunkirk was, and while its thematic or personal ambitions might not be as lofty as other films listed here, it is the dictionary definition of movie magic.

2017 Oscar Predictions

Best Sound Editing:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Baby Driver

Best Sound Mixing:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Baby Driver

        Perhaps the least prestigious awards of the night simply because most folks at home can't differentiate between Editing (the creation of sounds), and Mixing (the way said sounds are synthesized into the movie), and judging by Oscar's identical line-ups in both categories, neither can the Academy. Dunkirk is loud, and it's a war movie; unless tonight is a three hour coronation of The Shape of Water, this is a safe bet.

Best Make-up and Hairstyling:
1. The Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul

        Aging make-up seemingly always wins this category, and as the only film here with representation in more than one other category, Darkest Hour should take this one.

Best Costume Design:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. The Darkest Hour
5. Victoria & Abdul

        Phantom Thread was always going to be a contender in this category, but then it was a surprise nominee in a slew of other categories. If they actively love a film about dress-making, doesn't this seem like a lock?

Best Special Effects:
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Kong: Skull Island
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

        There are cases to be made for any of the top three, especially with Blade Runner 2049 showing up in so many other technical categories, but I'm going with the most amazing effects of the bunch, and assuming the Academy will too.

Best Original Song:
1. Remember Me---Coco
2. Mystery of Love---Call Me By Your Name
3. This is Me---The Greatest Showman
4. Stand Up for Something---Marshall
5. Mighty River---Mudbound

        Considering this is by far the worst award of the whole night, Original Song looks like a genuine race. This in Me is the sort of show-stopper they often like to recognize, but the two I have ranked above it come from much more beloved movies, and both prove integral to the narrative experience. As much as I'd love to see Sufjan Stevens with an Oscar in his hands, Remember Me is the life blood of the presumptive Best Animated Feature. Go with Coco, but don't bet the farm.

Best Original Score:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

        This isn't just a two-horse race of taste, but of ideology. There's the traditional front-runner, from a likely Best Picture winner, and the auteur pick, a lovely and odd offering from a lovely and odd movie. I'm going with Water, perhaps out of cowardice, but it would be no surprise to see Johnny Greenwood's Phantom Thread numbers pull away tonight.

Best Production Design:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. The Darkest Hour

       What a shame that Blade Runner 2049 had to go against such a juggernaut! There's hardly ever a Production Design favorite that's also the Best Picture favorite, and while the 2049 would likely walk away with this one in any other year, Water would too... and has 12 other nominations to bolster its case.

Best Editing:
1. Dunkirk
2. I, Tonya
3. Baby Driver
4. The Shape of Water
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

        Dunkirk and I, Tonya won their respective ACE prizes (editing guild), and the edge awards-wise always has to go to drama over comedy. Baby Driver also has its fair share of incisive cuts, and Shape of Water should be treated as a threat in all non-acting categories. The top four all have a chance, I'm just going with what the precursors told me. How Billboards got here is beyond my understanding.

Best Cinematography:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. The Darkest Hour

        It's not that I think snubbing Blade Runner 2049 would be injustice; it's that I think the Academy would think it was. Roger Deakins, one of the single greatest film craftsmen to ever walk this earth, has still never won an Oscar. I'm not sure that he cares, but I imagine many of the Academy's newer, younger members do. If it's still not his turn, you have to like one of the Best Picture heavyweights.

Best Foreign Language Feature:
1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. Loveless
4. Of Body and Soul
5. The Insult

       The top two film listed here have garnered a whole lot of attention stateside; the later three have not. Is that enough to actually predict them over the others? Of course not! Don't listen to me. I'm valuing hype over all else, and since the pedigree of The Square should have made it the obvious frontrunner by now, the fact that it remains a toss-up of sorts has me leaning the other way. Again, please do not put any weight on this half-hearted prediction.

Best Documentary:
1. Icarus
2. Faces Places
3. Island Strong
4. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
5. Last Men in Appelo

        I know even less about Documentaries than I do about foreign films, but I do know this; availability on Netflix pushes the needle in a big way. Faces Places is by far the doc I've heard most celebrated in the past calendar year, but Icarus might well have been better seen due to the aforementioned distinction. The last three on the list are fighting for scraps.

Best Animated Feature:
1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby

        Listen, lots of people adored Loving Vincent, and it's always worth taking this category's token foreign nominee seriously... but how the hell does Coco lose this? Quite possibly the single biggest lock of the night.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Logan
4. Molly's Game
5. The Disaster Artist

        As the only film on hand represented in the Best Picture category, Call Me By Your Name simply must be thought of as the odds-on favorite. That said, I keep waiting for Oscar to really dig into a streaming-service movie, and Mudbound marked their first-ever citation of a black woman in a writing category. There's an outside chance they make her their first winner as well.

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

        The presumptive Best Picture winner resides in this category... and has no goddamn chance. That's how absurdly stacked this line-up is this year, a bevy of options to suit anyone's taste. Lady Bird is almost universally adored, but might be too small and specific for the taste of this year's line-up. Smart money is on Billboards, a winner at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs that was disqualified from the Writer's Guild for (insert reason here). The winner of the aforementioned ceremony was Get Out, and I'm riding with it here; Billboards features too many questionable ethical outlooks and quandaries to top the brilliance of Jordan Peele's wunderkind script.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Sam Rockwell---Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 
2. Christopher Plummer---All the Money in the World
3. Willem Defoe---The Florida Project
4. Richard Jenkins---The Shape of Water
5. Woody Harrelson---Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

         Sam Rockwell's role in Three Billboards is the literal center of the film's controversy, a character that captures the imagination of some while proving utterly repulsive to others. But we're too late now; if he were to be beaten, we'd at least have some semblance of a worthy challenger. Plummer has the hero angle after replacing Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World, while Defoe receives passionate support in smaller circles, but Rockwell is a freight train at this point.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Laurie Metcalf---Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney---I, Tonya
3. Lesley Manville---Phantom Thread
4. Mary J. Blige---Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer---The Shape of Water

         Is this wishful thinking or an educated guess? Well... I hope both. Look, every year there are upsets in major categories; I dare you to find me a top 8 that went completely as expected. Yes, Janney has won nearly every precursor, and yes, I will look like an ass if I ignore all that just to come out on the other side being wrong, but Metcalf is just so clearly superior, and plays just as pivotal a role in a much more beloved film. Ever since last year's stunning Moonlight triumph, I can't help but look for moments like these, where there's just so much more heartfelt support for the underdog than the favorite. Call me a fool, but I'm rinsing out the tea leaves, dumping them in the compost, and going Metcalf.

Best Actor:
1. Gary Oldman---The Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis---Phantom Thread
3. Timothée Chalamet---Call Me By Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya---Get Out
5. Denzel Washington---Roman J. Israel, Esq.

        This has been Oldman's Oscar for So Damn Long. Many have touted Chalamet's chances, the youngest Best Actor nominee since 1939, but I for one can't really see him toppling multiple legends. The other legend in question is Day-Lewis, appearing in what is reportedly his final film role. That's not only probably untrue, but not a reason to give someone yet another Oscar, even if their competition is Gary Oldman in a fat suit.

Best Actress:
1. Francis McDormand---Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan---Lady Bird
3. Margot Robbie---I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins---The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep---The Post

        McDormand is among the night's biggest frontrunners, an courageous manifestation of the movie's thornier themes. Robbie seemed like her most prominent competition in the early goings, her shape-shifting, multi-aged depiction of some one who was both real and larger than life, but the overwhelming love poured upon Lady Bird has me leaning towards Ronan as the spoiler. But seriously, bet McDormand

Best Director:
1. Guillermo del Toro---The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan---Dunkirk
3. Jordan Peele---Get Out
4. Greta Gerwig---Lady Bird
5. Paul Thomas Anderson---Phantom Thread

        Guillermo has two very important things going for him; the Mexican master is widely regarded as one of the best filmmakers of this generation, and there's no obvious usurper to his crown. Nolan's towering achievement seems destined for Oscar to completely screw up, while Gerwig and Peele, superior as their accomplishments might be, are both first time directors, and will likely have to wait their turn. Pan's Labyrinth lovers can finally feel some solace tonight. And yes, incase you were wondering, that means the director of his generation is the also-ran in this bunch.

Best Picture:
        Welcome to the single most difficult Best Picture winner to predict of my adult lifetime (and yes, this includes the years I guessed Lincoln over Argo, Gravity over 12 Years a Slave, and La La Land over Moonlight). Before we get to any real analysis of the likely winner, let's drop four nominees out of contention entirely.
        Say what you will about The Post's timely subject matter; the testament to journalistic values wouldn't be here if not for the pedigree of the Streep, Hanks, Spielberg three-headed monster that brought it to middle-aged life. The Darkest Hour rode in on the coattails of the British voting body, and its ride ends here. Call Me By Your Name is beloved by many, but is simply too small and talky to take home the big one. Phantom Thread's nomination was a big surprise, which alone probably indicates that an invitation was its reward.
        Then we have Lady Bird and Dunkirk, both of which would be surprise winners, if not entirely unforeseeable victors. The former is a coming-of-age movie championed by many but likely too small in size, while the latter is a technical, sensory marvel that might appeal to multiple branches of the Academy while failing to produce genuine, long-lasting support as anyone's single favorite film of the year.
        Which leads us to our big three. Three Billboards has been seen (and continues to be seen in the eyes of many) as the front-runner, an inconsequential Golden Globes win parleyed into a massive showing at the BAFTAs, and tremendous support from SAG (you know... the actors... the Academy's most populated branch?). Support for the film cannot be doubted, and reaches across many sections of voters, but the uneasy race politics at the center of the film make it hard for me to see this as the winner of 2017, given how much the world around it has completely fallen apart. That's all without observing the movie's thunderously loud omission from the Best Director category.
        Then comes The Shape of Water, an odd-ball fantasy from a renowned filmmaker poised to take home the Best Director trophy. But the film is a technical marvel before an emotional, philosophical, or narrative achievement, neglecting to garner true passion from anyone who's seen it despite the eye-ball mastery of nearly every frame. More an amusement park ride than a proper story, Water is assured to gobble up tech categories, but I just can't bring myself to see it catching the white whale.
        And yes, ladies and gentlemen, that leads me to Get Out. As recently as a few months ago, I thought it would likely show up in Original Screenplay, and be a no show everywhere else. Then it appeared at all the major guilds, and suddenly became not only an obvious Picture nominee, but a Best Director and Best Actor recipient as well. If you're going to make the case that this is a ridiculous pick, please argue genre rather than the 'they're not going to give it to two black movies in a row,' angle. While Get Out is undoubtably a movie about race issues, Moonlight is about life and happens to be a life led by a gay black man. It's different, and besides, it's not like the academy huddles together and decides the message they want to send out as a collective.
        If there is something to take away from Moonlight's stunning victory over La La Land, it's that the academy's much-touted influx of young, female, and non-white voters has had as powerful an impact as we'd hoped. 774 new members were added last year alone, and in just the last three years, 39% of inductees were women (bolstering their percentage of the academy to a still-too-low 28%), and 30% were of color (13% of the academy, up from 8% as recently as 2015). Perhaps just as crucially, Oscar has started expelling members who no longer work in the industry after a certain period of time. I say all this not as a means of making the case for a 'black movie' or a 'female movie' but rather the case against movies like The Darkest Hour; the academy is too young and too diverse to pick those movies anymore. They had their time in the sun.
        There is simply no over-stating how unlikely last year's photo finish was. La La Land was a movie about Hollywood (always a favorite subject of voters), dusted off a largely dormant film genre, was a grandstanding technical feat, and featured two big name movie stars who were ready to take the mantle. Any movie would have a hard time toppling that, but Moonlight had no historical precedent whatsoever. Yes, it was black, and yes, it was gay, but don't get hung up on those as the only reasons that made it such a long-shot. It wasn't about war, it wasn't a biopic, and it wasn't about Tinseltown; it was about life as lived by people, a topic that never, ever, ever, EVER wins Best Picture (consult the list if you don't believe me).
        To expect fireworks again might be foolish of me, but it's not like last year was a small underdog coming up big, it was David besting Goliath in modern times. It was also, among critics and film buffs alike, the much more beloved movie, just as Get Out (and Lady Bird, for that matter) are decidedly more adored than Water or Billboards. The mountain that Moonlight had to climb to take the mantle makes Get Out's look like an ant hill; it was a box office smash, its big ideas are too unsubtle to miss, and its primary competition come in the form of a monster movie and a racist reclamation project. I know I'm picking the long shot, but after last year, I have a feeling/hope that we're moving towards a world where the Best Picture selection looks great in five years time, not completely foolish (looking at you, The Artist, The King's Speech, Argo...). Fingers crossed.

1. Get Out
2. The Shape of Water
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. The Darkest Hour
9. The Post