Oscar Predictions 2018

Best Picture:

1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. Black Panther
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Blackkklansman
6. The Favourite
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice

Make no mistake: Roma is the favorite to take home the big prize tonight, but I just can’t wrap my head around it. A foreign language film has never won the Academy’s top honor, and there’s doubtlessly a portion of the voters who will be against a Netflix movie winning Best Picture on principle alone, given that home viewings don’t exactly drive the box office.

Bohemian Rhapsody, almost universally derided by critics and cinephiles alike, is the movie that simply won’t die, and the freight train that is Rami Malik’s Oscar campaign, combined with enormous popularity worldwide, make it impossible to count out. Same goes for Blackkklansman, given its timely subject matter, and widespread sentiment that Spike Lee is deserved his long-delayed due. Black Panther’s global domination dwarfs all competition by a sizable margin, and electing a superhero movie as 2018’s champion would mark a sea-change in the way this ceremony is viewed, which could appeal to some of the newer voters.

But I’m going the complete opposite direction. Green Book is all the things movie obsessives chide the Oscars for always championing: an “important film” with a simplistic view point on complicated issues. Many have presumed its chances as DOA after the slew of controversies its had to weather over the last couple months, from claims of fabrication to the unsavory actions of several of its creators. I can’t help but wonder if all this might have actually bolstered its chances, prompting a slew of Hollywood power players to buck back against being told what they should and shouldn’t vote for. It was already a questionable choice when the PGA (the “Best Picture” guild) gave Green Book its top prize; why are we all assuming they’ve since changed their minds?

I know I’m going out on a limb, but I just can’t shake the feeling that Roma is too radical a choice, and Green Book strikes me as the most likely alternative. The last three movies here are just along for the ride.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuaron—Roma
2. Spike Lee—Blackkklansman
3. Adam McKay—Vice
4. Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
5. Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War

After my Best Picture rant, let me keep this one short and sweet: Cuaron has this one in the bag. Spike Lee’s status as an overdue legend gives him a sliver of a chance, but this is truly one of the biggest locks of the night.

Best Actress:

1. Glenn Close—The Wife
2. Olivia Coleman—The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga—A Star is Born
4. Yalitza Aparicio—Roma
5. Melissa McCarthy—Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Cuaron is a big lock, then Close is bigger, as she currently claims the most nominations ever for a thespian without a golden man to show for it. Coleman’s there if Oscar wants to get frisky, but this is basically a done deal.

Best Actor:

1. Rami Malik—Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale—Vice
3. Bradley Cooper—A Star is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen—Green Book
5. Willem Defoe—At Eternity’s Gate

From big to bigger to biggest. Malik’s strangle-hold on this statuette is so white-knuckled that Bohemian Rhapsody received a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble... and no one can even remember another performance in the movie. Given his parent movie’s poor reviews, it almost feels like they nominated Rami Malik, not Bohemian Rhapsody, for Best Picture. Treating this performance like Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but that’s where we are.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams—Vice
2. Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Rachel Weisz—The Favourite
4. Emma Stone—The Favourite
5. Marina de Tavira—Roma

Besides Best Picture, this is my other truly off-the-rails pick. King has been the presumptive favorite for months, but wasn’t even nominated by her own peers at SAG, something that calls to mind Sly Stallone’s last second collapse for Creed a few years ago. As the BAFTA winner, Weisz would seem to be next in line, but she already has an Oscar, as does her co-star Emma Stone, and starring in the same movie might have caused a vote split anyway. That leaves Adams and her five previous nominations without a win to show for her efforts, representing a movie that Oscar obviously loves. Without a clear-cut choice, I’m betting on the “she’s due” narrative to win the day.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali—Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Sam Elliot—A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver—Blackkklansman
5. Sam Rockwell—Vice

Ali has won literally everything leading up to tonight, and seeing him unseated would be stunning. That said, Grant has hit the campaign trail with a head full of steam, and is beloved within the industry. He’s a dark horse, but only if you squint.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. First Reformed
4. Roma
5. Vice

This will be one of the most telling moments of the night. Original Screenplay has been The Favourite’s to lose for months now, and it’s incredibly rare for a film with ten nominations to go home without a major award. That’s why a Green Book win here would be a neon sign pointing to my Best Picture upset predicted above. I’m still going with chalk, but wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see 2018’s Driving Miss Daisy steal this one at the last second. There’s also a left field chance that Paul Schrader, the never-before nominated writer behind Taxi Driver and Raging Bull, can sneak in for First Reformed, but a wouldn’t bet any currency on it.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Blackkklansman
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. A Star is Born

Spike Lee isn’t getting any younger, and if Oscar finally wants to send him home with something golden, this seems like the place to do it. Can You Ever Forgive Me?’s win at the WGA makes it a viable competitor, but this mostly seems like a lay-up in terms of avoiding bad press.

Best Foreign Feature:

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Never Look Away
5. Capernaum

Man, how crazy would it be if Roma, the presumptive Best Picture favorite, couldn’t win in this category? That said, Pawel Pawlikowski’s surprise Best Director nomination means Cold War is an Academy favorite, laying the groundwork for a shocking upset.

Best Documentary Feature:

1. Free Solo
2. RBG
3. Minding the Gap
4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
5. Of Fathers and Sons

Truly bizarre to not see Won’t You Be My Neighbor? or Three Identical Strangers on this list. With those two sizable omissions, Free Solo and RBG are the two remaining box office hits in the race, and the visceral, must-be-seen-in-theaters nature of the former should give it the slight edge. Minding the Gap’s status as a deeply beloved feature in some impassioned circles keeps its chances alive, but I’m playing it safe.

Best Animated Feature:

1. Spider-man: Into the Spiderverse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai

After Malik and Close, this is the biggest lock of the night. Incredibles’ Pixar branding makes it the obvious next in line, but there’s really no use over-thinking this pick.

Best Cinematography:

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. The Favourite
4. A Star is Born
5. Never Look Away

Roma is in the driver’s seat of the Best Picture race, and its cinematography is its single strongest element. Cold War and The Favourite are too gorgeous to count out, but either would represent a stunning upset.

Best Editing:

1. Vice
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. Blackkklansman

Much like Best Adapted Screenplay, this is a category to keep an eye on if the tides start to turn. Vice has the most editing, and most and best are often the same when it comes to the Oscars. Bohemian Rhapsody somehow won this award at the editor’s guild, making it next in line, but if Green Book, who has absolutely no business among these five, manages to steal this one, we might as well just hand it Best Picture.

Best Production Design:

1. Black Panther
2. The Favourite
3. Roma
4. First Man 
5. Mary Poppins Returns

All signs point to The Favourite snagging this one, but I struggle to see Black Panther, after finally making the Superhero breakthrough at the Oscars, being sent home with nothing, and this and the next category are clearly its best chances.

Best Costume Design:

1. The Favourite 
2. Black Panther 
3. Mary Poppins Returns 
4. Mary Queen of Scots 
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

As implied above, this is a two horse race between The Favourite and Black Panther, and try as I might, I just can’t see the Academy passing up period costumes... like ever.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling:

1. Vice 
2. Mary Queen of Scots 
3. Border

What a stupid category; consistently having only three nominees when literally every other category (besides Best Picture) has five is just ridiculous, especially when only one nominee has serious representation in the rest of the show. I take back everything I said earlier; this is the true lock of the night.

Best Original Score:

1. If Beale Street Could Talk 
2. Blackkklansman 
3. Black Panther 
4. Mary Poppins Returns 
5. Isle of Dogs

Listen, Terence Blanchard’s lack of Academy recognition after an incredible career keeps Blackkklansman in the conversation, but have you heard the Beale Street score? It practically melts in your ears.

Best Original Song:

1. Shallow—A Star is Born 
2. All the Stars—Black Panther 
3. I’ll Fight—RBG 
4. When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings—The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 
5. The Place Where Lost Things Go—Mary Poppins Returns

Once upon a time, certain prognosticators, *cough* me *cough, thought Best Picture was A Star is Born’s to lose. Original Song appears to be all that’s left in the ashes of that dashed campaign, and while the Kendrick Lamar if it all made All the Stars seem like a hot upset pick, the fact that Black Panther’s entrant will be the only song not performed live tonight all but assure Bradley Cooper will receive the silliest consultation prize imaginable.

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avengers: Infinity War 
2. First Man 
3. Ready Player One 
4. Christopher Robin 
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

It’s almost unbelievable considering all of Black Panther’s nominations, but Marvel Studios have yet to win a single Oscar. Infinity War took home the grade prize at the effects guild, but it’s far from a lock given that this award almost always gets allotted to something less... let’s say... computer generated, making First Man the obvious sleeper

Best Sound Editing:

1. A Quiet Place
2. First Man
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Black Panther
5. Roma

This seems like such an obvious First Man win, but A Quiet Place has such a simple case to make (look mom, no noise!) that I can’t help but think voters will mark it down. It literally has volume in its name!

Best Sound Mixing:

1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. A Star is Born
5. Roma

Essentially a movie musical with concert-level sounds and a deft blurring of Malik and Mercury’s voices; this might just be too good to pass up.