1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Baby Driver
Best Sound Mixing:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Baby Driver
Perhaps the least prestigious awards of the night simply because most folks at home can't differentiate between Editing (the creation of sounds), and Mixing (the way said sounds are synthesized into the movie), and judging by Oscar's identical line-ups in both categories, neither can the Academy. Dunkirk is loud, and it's a war movie; unless tonight is a three hour coronation of The Shape of Water, this is a safe bet.
1. The Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul
Aging make-up seemingly always wins this category, and as the only film here with representation in more than one other category, Darkest Hour should take this one.
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. The Darkest Hour
5. Victoria & Abdul
Phantom Thread was always going to be a contender in this category, but then it was a surprise nominee in a slew of other categories. If they actively love a film about dress-making, doesn't this seem like a lock?
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Kong: Skull Island
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
There are cases to be made for any of the top three, especially with Blade Runner 2049 showing up in so many other technical categories, but I'm going with the most amazing effects of the bunch, and assuming the Academy will too.
1. Remember Me---Coco
2. Mystery of Love---Call Me By Your Name
3. This is Me---The Greatest Showman
4. Stand Up for Something---Marshall
5. Mighty River---Mudbound
Considering this is by far the worst award of the whole night, Original Song looks like a genuine race. This in Me is the sort of show-stopper they often like to recognize, but the two I have ranked above it come from much more beloved movies, and both prove integral to the narrative experience. As much as I'd love to see Sufjan Stevens with an Oscar in his hands, Remember Me is the life blood of the presumptive Best Animated Feature. Go with Coco, but don't bet the farm.
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
This isn't just a two-horse race of taste, but of ideology. There's the traditional front-runner, from a likely Best Picture winner, and the auteur pick, a lovely and odd offering from a lovely and odd movie. I'm going with Water, perhaps out of cowardice, but it would be no surprise to see Johnny Greenwood's Phantom Thread numbers pull away tonight.
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. The Darkest Hour
What a shame that Blade Runner 2049 had to go against such a juggernaut! There's hardly ever a Production Design favorite that's also the Best Picture favorite, and while the 2049 would likely walk away with this one in any other year, Water would too... and has 12 other nominations to bolster its case.
1. Dunkirk
2. I, Tonya
3. Baby Driver
4. The Shape of Water
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dunkirk and I, Tonya won their respective ACE prizes (editing guild), and the edge awards-wise always has to go to drama over comedy. Baby Driver also has its fair share of incisive cuts, and Shape of Water should be treated as a threat in all non-acting categories. The top four all have a chance, I'm just going with what the precursors told me. How Billboards got here is beyond my understanding.
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. The Darkest Hour
It's not that I think snubbing Blade Runner 2049 would be injustice; it's that I think the Academy would think it was. Roger Deakins, one of the single greatest film craftsmen to ever walk this earth, has still never won an Oscar. I'm not sure that he cares, but I imagine many of the Academy's newer, younger members do. If it's still not his turn, you have to like one of the Best Picture heavyweights.
1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. Loveless
4. Of Body and Soul
5. The Insult
The top two film listed here have garnered a whole lot of attention stateside; the later three have not. Is that enough to actually predict them over the others? Of course not! Don't listen to me. I'm valuing hype over all else, and since the pedigree of The Square should have made it the obvious frontrunner by now, the fact that it remains a toss-up of sorts has me leaning the other way. Again, please do not put any weight on this half-hearted prediction.
1. Icarus
2. Faces Places
3. Island Strong
4. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
5. Last Men in Appelo
I know even less about Documentaries than I do about foreign films, but I do know this; availability on Netflix pushes the needle in a big way. Faces Places is by far the doc I've heard most celebrated in the past calendar year, but Icarus might well have been better seen due to the aforementioned distinction. The last three on the list are fighting for scraps.
1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby
Listen, lots of people adored Loving Vincent, and it's always worth taking this category's token foreign nominee seriously... but how the hell does Coco lose this? Quite possibly the single biggest lock of the night.
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Logan
4. Molly's Game
5. The Disaster Artist
As the only film on hand represented in the Best Picture category, Call Me By Your Name simply must be thought of as the odds-on favorite. That said, I keep waiting for Oscar to really dig into a streaming-service movie, and Mudbound marked their first-ever citation of a black woman in a writing category. There's an outside chance they make her their first winner as well.
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick
The presumptive Best Picture winner resides in this category... and has no goddamn chance. That's how absurdly stacked this line-up is this year, a bevy of options to suit anyone's taste. Lady Bird is almost universally adored, but might be too small and specific for the taste of this year's line-up. Smart money is on Billboards, a winner at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs that was disqualified from the Writer's Guild for (insert reason here). The winner of the aforementioned ceremony was Get Out, and I'm riding with it here; Billboards features too many questionable ethical outlooks and quandaries to top the brilliance of Jordan Peele's wunderkind script.
1. Sam Rockwell---Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Christopher Plummer---All the Money in the World
3. Willem Defoe---The Florida Project
4. Richard Jenkins---The Shape of Water
5. Woody Harrelson---Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sam Rockwell's role in Three Billboards is the literal center of the film's controversy, a character that captures the imagination of some while proving utterly repulsive to others. But we're too late now; if he were to be beaten, we'd at least have some semblance of a worthy challenger. Plummer has the hero angle after replacing Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World, while Defoe receives passionate support in smaller circles, but Rockwell is a freight train at this point.
1. Laurie Metcalf---Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney---I, Tonya
3. Lesley Manville---Phantom Thread
4. Mary J. Blige---Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer---The Shape of Water
Is this wishful thinking or an educated guess? Well... I hope both. Look, every year there are upsets in major categories; I dare you to find me a top 8 that went completely as expected. Yes, Janney has won nearly every precursor, and yes, I will look like an ass if I ignore all that just to come out on the other side being wrong, but Metcalf is just so clearly superior, and plays just as pivotal a role in a much more beloved film. Ever since last year's stunning Moonlight triumph, I can't help but look for moments like these, where there's just so much more heartfelt support for the underdog than the favorite. Call me a fool, but I'm rinsing out the tea leaves, dumping them in the compost, and going Metcalf.
1. Gary Oldman---The Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis---Phantom Thread
3. Timothée Chalamet---Call Me By Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya---Get Out
5. Denzel Washington---Roman J. Israel, Esq.
This has been Oldman's Oscar for So Damn Long. Many have touted Chalamet's chances, the youngest Best Actor nominee since 1939, but I for one can't really see him toppling multiple legends. The other legend in question is Day-Lewis, appearing in what is reportedly his final film role. That's not only probably untrue, but not a reason to give someone yet another Oscar, even if their competition is Gary Oldman in a fat suit.
1. Francis McDormand---Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan---Lady Bird
3. Margot Robbie---I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins---The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep---The Post
McDormand is among the night's biggest frontrunners, an courageous manifestation of the movie's thornier themes. Robbie seemed like her most prominent competition in the early goings, her shape-shifting, multi-aged depiction of some one who was both real and larger than life, but the overwhelming love poured upon Lady Bird has me leaning towards Ronan as the spoiler. But seriously, bet McDormand
1. Guillermo del Toro---The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan---Dunkirk
3. Jordan Peele---Get Out
4. Greta Gerwig---Lady Bird
5. Paul Thomas Anderson---Phantom Thread
Guillermo has two very important things going for him; the Mexican master is widely regarded as one of the best filmmakers of this generation, and there's no obvious usurper to his crown. Nolan's towering achievement seems destined for Oscar to completely screw up, while Gerwig and Peele, superior as their accomplishments might be, are both first time directors, and will likely have to wait their turn. Pan's Labyrinth lovers can finally feel some solace tonight. And yes, incase you were wondering, that means the director of his generation is the also-ran in this bunch.
Welcome to the single most difficult Best Picture winner to predict of my adult lifetime (and yes, this includes the years I guessed Lincoln over Argo, Gravity over 12 Years a Slave, and La La Land over Moonlight). Before we get to any real analysis of the likely winner, let's drop four nominees out of contention entirely.
Say what you will about The Post's timely subject matter; the testament to journalistic values wouldn't be here if not for the pedigree of the Streep, Hanks, Spielberg three-headed monster that brought it to middle-aged life. The Darkest Hour rode in on the coattails of the British voting body, and its ride ends here. Call Me By Your Name is beloved by many, but is simply too small and talky to take home the big one. Phantom Thread's nomination was a big surprise, which alone probably indicates that an invitation was its reward.
Then we have Lady Bird and Dunkirk, both of which would be surprise winners, if not entirely unforeseeable victors. The former is a coming-of-age movie championed by many but likely too small in size, while the latter is a technical, sensory marvel that might appeal to multiple branches of the Academy while failing to produce genuine, long-lasting support as anyone's single favorite film of the year.
Which leads us to our big three. Three Billboards has been seen (and continues to be seen in the eyes of many) as the front-runner, an inconsequential Golden Globes win parleyed into a massive showing at the BAFTAs, and tremendous support from SAG (you know... the actors... the Academy's most populated branch?). Support for the film cannot be doubted, and reaches across many sections of voters, but the uneasy race politics at the center of the film make it hard for me to see this as the winner of 2017, given how much the world around it has completely fallen apart. That's all without observing the movie's thunderously loud omission from the Best Director category.
Then comes The Shape of Water, an odd-ball fantasy from a renowned filmmaker poised to take home the Best Director trophy. But the film is a technical marvel before an emotional, philosophical, or narrative achievement, neglecting to garner true passion from anyone who's seen it despite the eye-ball mastery of nearly every frame. More an amusement park ride than a proper story, Water is assured to gobble up tech categories, but I just can't bring myself to see it catching the white whale.
And yes, ladies and gentlemen, that leads me to Get Out. As recently as a few months ago, I thought it would likely show up in Original Screenplay, and be a no show everywhere else. Then it appeared at all the major guilds, and suddenly became not only an obvious Picture nominee, but a Best Director and Best Actor recipient as well. If you're going to make the case that this is a ridiculous pick, please argue genre rather than the 'they're not going to give it to two black movies in a row,' angle. While Get Out is undoubtably a movie about race issues, Moonlight is about life and happens to be a life led by a gay black man. It's different, and besides, it's not like the academy huddles together and decides the message they want to send out as a collective.
If there is something to take away from Moonlight's stunning victory over La La Land, it's that the academy's much-touted influx of young, female, and non-white voters has had as powerful an impact as we'd hoped. 774 new members were added last year alone, and in just the last three years, 39% of inductees were women (bolstering their percentage of the academy to a still-too-low 28%), and 30% were of color (13% of the academy, up from 8% as recently as 2015). Perhaps just as crucially, Oscar has started expelling members who no longer work in the industry after a certain period of time. I say all this not as a means of making the case for a 'black movie' or a 'female movie' but rather the case against movies like The Darkest Hour; the academy is too young and too diverse to pick those movies anymore. They had their time in the sun.
There is simply no over-stating how unlikely last year's photo finish was. La La Land was a movie about Hollywood (always a favorite subject of voters), dusted off a largely dormant film genre, was a grandstanding technical feat, and featured two big name movie stars who were ready to take the mantle. Any movie would have a hard time toppling that, but Moonlight had no historical precedent whatsoever. Yes, it was black, and yes, it was gay, but don't get hung up on those as the only reasons that made it such a long-shot. It wasn't about war, it wasn't a biopic, and it wasn't about Tinseltown; it was about life as lived by people, a topic that never, ever, ever, EVER wins Best Picture (consult the list if you don't believe me).
To expect fireworks again might be foolish of me, but it's not like last year was a small underdog coming up big, it was David besting Goliath in modern times. It was also, among critics and film buffs alike, the much more beloved movie, just as Get Out (and Lady Bird, for that matter) are decidedly more adored than Water or Billboards. The mountain that Moonlight had to climb to take the mantle makes Get Out's look like an ant hill; it was a box office smash, its big ideas are too unsubtle to miss, and its primary competition come in the form of a monster movie and a racist reclamation project. I know I'm picking the long shot, but after last year, I have a feeling/hope that we're moving towards a world where the Best Picture selection looks great in five years time, not completely foolish (looking at you, The Artist, The King's Speech, Argo...). Fingers crossed.
1. Get Out
2. The Shape of Water
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. The Darkest Hour
9. The Post
No comments:
Post a Comment