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Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Oscar Predictions 2013: Round Three (Final Nomination Predictions)

Best Picture:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Previous Ranking: 1)
        Fared well in the guilds, possesses important subject matter, and is revered by many. I’m not ready to call it a lock for the nomination, but 12 remains the favorite.
2. Gravity (Previous Ranking: 2)
        Far and away the year’s greatest pure spectacle, Gravity should clean up in the technical categories, which could parlay into the big win.
3. American Hustle (Previous Ranking: 6)
        Headlined by five recent nominees, American Hustle’s star power has it popping up everywhere on the pre-oscar trail. Making the line-up feels like a foregone conclusion.
4. Captain Phillips (Previous Ranking: 4)
        There’s a BIG drop between numbers 3 and 4 on this list; though Captain Phillips is beloved by many, hardly anyone calls it their favorite movie of the year. That said, SAG, DGA, WGA, and PGA nominations inspire faith.
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Previous Ranking: 5)
        Wolf’s divisive nature and subject matter will undoubtably turn some voters away, but the backlash against the film will probably end up proving that no press is bad press. Scorsese’s DGA nod was huge.
6. Nebraska (Previous Ranking: 7)

        The DGA miss is a bit troubling, but Alexander Payne has directed two straight Best Picture nominees, and won a couple statues for writing, not to mention the subject matter should prove appealing to certain academy members.

7. Dallas Buyers Club (Previous Ranking: 13)
        And here’s where things start getting murky: though DBC didn’t seem like a Best Picture player for much of the year, being singled-out by the Actor’s Guild (the largest branch of the Academy), the Producers Guild (essentially the, ‘Best Picture,’ guild), and the Writer’s Guild (*CherryOnTop*) changes everything.

8. Inside Llweyn Davis (Previous Ranking: 3)
I’m incredibly tempted, as I did in my rough draft of this article, to follow suit with the PGA, and leave Llewyn off the list. The fact remains that the Coens have only been left out of the big race once since 2004’s The Ladykillers. The preferential voting system also works in their favor.

I am predicting these eight films to be nominated (I don't have some crazy math equation that helped me determine this number; these just seem like the ones). The following is where I rank the next movies in line.

9. Her (Previous Ranking: 14)
        Her has its ultra-passionate supporters, as witnessed with its PGA nod, but the lack of any likely acting nominees, as well as its odd-ball premise, keep it off my list.

10. Blue Jasmine (Previous Ranking: 8)
The fact that Blanchett is virtually unbeatable in Best Actress means Blue Jasmine will be spinning in the DVD players of academy members the country-over. Still, even the PGA citation doesn’t dissuade me from thinking the picture is just too small.
11. Saving Mr. Banks (Previous ranking: 10)
Showing up on the Producers’ list gives me more faith than anything else Banks-related that transpired this Oscar season, as people seem to love Thompson, and have mixed feelings on the rest.

12. Philomena (Previous Ranking: 17)


‘The British Voting Block,’ is a term that Oscar nerds love to throw around every year, and in 2013, the most likely recipient of their affection is Philomena. Most of me thinks the sector’s importance is entirely over-blown, but stranger things have happened.
12. The Butler (Previous Ranking: 9)
Important Subject Matter + Box Office + famous actors playing famous people + Oprah! There’s still a lot to like here, but Lee Daniels’ latest has been a virtual no-show through-out precursor season.

Lone Survivor (Previous Ranking: Unranked)

Unexpectedly enormous Box Office this last weekend, paired with overly-enthusiastic audience response, and that out-of-nowhere WGA shout-out. Who knows?
14. Fruitvale Station (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
        The word here is Passion: Station might not get love from everyone, but if it can generate enough #1 votes, an invitation is still possible.
15. Before Midnight (Previous Ranking: 16)
Copy and past everything from the FS commentary.
17. August: Osage County (Previous Ranking: 11)
        Since the actors comprise the largest voting body of the academy, taking this star-studded stage adaptation off the list prematurely could prove fool-hardy.
Blue is the Warmest Color (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
Amour made it last year; could another beloved foreign film follow in its footsteps?
19. All is Lost (Previous Ranking: 12)
Diving kind of deep here, but Redford has a history with the golden man, and Director J.C. Chandor’s out-of-the-blue screenplay nomination for Margin Call has to mean something, right?

Best Actor:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor---12 Years a Slave
This is the ultimate example of where nomination predictions differ from actual Oscar prognostications: as much as I don’t foresee Ejiofor winning the award, it’s harder still to visualize him missing out on a nod.
2. Bruce Dern---Nebraska
The elder-statesman on campus, headlining a likely Best Picture nominee. If that’s not enough, he’s even ready and eager to campaign!

3. Matthew McConaughey---Dallas Buyers Club
The Math Mac’s stinky filmography has me wondering how short-term Oscar’s memory really is, but if he gets in, the #1 slot is all his (at least temporarily...).
4. Tom Hanks---Captain Phillips
All signs point to Hanks getting in, but the guy hasn’t heard his name called on Oscar morning since 2001, and something about Phillips gives me pause.
5. Leonardo DiCaprio---The Wolf of Wall Street
Word is that the majority of the SAG didn’t see Wolf until after it was time to vote, but Leo was just snubbed last year; maybe they need a break.
6. Robert Redford---All Is Lost
Being left off of the SAG’s final five REALLY hurt, but hope is still alive for this living legend in a one-man show.

7. Forest Whitaker---The Butler
Usurping Redford’s spot with the Screen Actor’s Guild was a big boost, but it’s tough to have faith in a performance from an only-so-beloved film.
8. Joaquin Phoenix---Her
        Those who love Her agree that his performance is a huge part of why the flick works.
9. Christian Bale---American Hustle
How much do you guys love American Hustle? Enough to sweep me in?
10. Oscar Isaac---Inside Llewyn Davis
Same as above, only with far less love for the film in question.
11. Michael B. Jordan---Fruitvale Station
        If any movie scores a handful of jaw-dropping nominations tomorrow, I think it will be FS, whose star has been receiving accolades for almost a year now.

Best Actress:
1. Cate Blanchett---Blue Jasmine
One of Oscar’s two most boring categories, Blanchett neurotic Woody Allen lead seems all but unbeatable at this point.
2. Sandra Bullock---Gravity
Methinks single-handedly carrying lengthy stretches of one of 2013’s most beloved films has its benefits.
3. Emma Thompson---Saving Mr. Banks
No part of me can see her winning, but many praise her performance, and Banks could still make a big splash in a variety of categories.
4. Judi Dench---Philomena
Dench wouldn’t be so safe if it weren’t for such embarrassingly-modest competition. Pedigree alone should be enough.
5. Meryl Streep---August: Osage County
Streep is Streep, and the 2013 Best Actress category is the 2013 Best Actress category. If you can name the last Meryl-Guns-For-An-Oscar performance that didn’t get nominated, I’ll take her off the list.
6. Amy Adams---American Hustle
The four-time nominee’s movie has admirers aplenty, and in a year like this, leading in such a flick could get you in all by itself.
7. Adèle Exarchopoulos---Blue is the Warmest Color
Again with the passion vote: if certain sectors of the academy really love Blue, Exarchopoulos could happen, but then and only then.

8. Brie Larson---Section 12
        Channeling the spirit of The Little Engine That Could, Larson’s film might be nearly invisible, but some are really championing her performance.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Jared Leto---Dallas Buyers Club
Can anyone beat either Blanchett or Leto? These feel like the two most boring categories of the night (though Gravity’s Special Effects Oscar sure feels like it’s in the bag, or is that just me?).
2. Michael Fassbender---12 Years a Slave
It might feel dirty to pencil such a deplorable character in for the win, but Fassbender missing the final five seems equally inconceivable.
3. Barkhad Abdi---Captain Phillips
He hardly made a blip on my radar for much of 2013, but an absolute cavalcade of recent notations has the first-time actor looking like a sure thing for a nomination.
4. James Gandolfini---Enough Said
Call me cynical, but I just feel like this post-humous nomination is too juicy for Oscar to turn down. Gandolfini was, after all, a thespian worthy of the academy’s attention.
Bradley Cooper---American Hustle
A first-time nominee just last year, Cooper is one of Hollywood’s hottest stars, featured in one of Oscar’s favorite movies.
Daniel Brühl - Rush


Brutal to leave him off after so many have cited him, including the SAG, but has anyone taken the time to see this movie?

7. Matthew McConaughey---Mud
        It’s always a great story when Oscar nominates an individual in multiple categories, especially acting categories, and the Math Mac’s star is scorchingly hot right now.
8. Jonah Hill---The Wolf of Wall Street
        A previous nominee playing sidekick in what will likely be one of the ceremony’s buzziest pictures, Hill can’t be discounted just yet.

9. John Goodman---Inside Llewyn Davis

        The veteran slot, witnessed more often in Supporting Actor than in any other category. Maybe Gandolfini fits the bill, but I’d still watch out.

10. Tom Hanks---Saving Mr. Banks

        Ditto everything written about McConaughey and his film, only with a less beloved movie, and less lauded performance.

10. Will Forte---Nebraska
        The NBR tip-of-the-hat was surprising, and they might just love the flick.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Lupita Nyong’o---12 Years a Slave
        In perfect contradiction to Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress is a category where the golden man often likes to reward newcomers, and who could be a better candidate than the flooring Nyong-o?

2. Oprah Winfrey---The Butler
        The most famous woman in America (the world?) acting in a biopic about the civil rights movement? This was a nomination the moment the cast and crew were announced.

3. Jennifer Lawrence---American Hustle
        Hollywood’s star-of-the-moment, Lawrence’s status as America’s Sweetheart might help her as much as having JUST WON last year might hurt her.

4. June Squibb---Nebraska 
        The foul-mouthed mid-westerner might not have much of a shot at the win, but bragging rights as one of the oldest acting nominees of all time feel pretty safe.

5. Julia Roberts---August: Osage County
        Hollywood royalty in a role that many consider the lead? Perhaps not in a stronger year for the ladies, but in 2013...


6. Sally Hawkins---Blue Jasmine
        Hawkins is great in Jasmine, and the BAFTA’s recognition, in conjunction with the PGA shoulder-tap, keeps her right in the thick of things.

7. Octavia Spencer---Fruitvale Station

        Like I keep saying, FS's got spoiler potential, and many cite Spencer as the movie's stand-out performance.
8. Jennifer Garner---Dallas Buyers Club
        The movie got the SAG ensemble nomination, and with two co-stars figuring to be virtual locks, she could get pulled in.
9. Scarlett Johansson---Her

        If Oscar is feeling desperate for attention, he might just invite this voice-only performance to the party, which would make it the first of its kind. 

10. Sarah Paulson---12 Years a Slave
        If 12 Years goes on a nomination rampage, watch out.
11. Lea Seydoux---Blue is the Warmest Color

        Rinse and repeat: Blue might just have some strong advocates out there, so I'm leaving all participants on the list.
Best Director:
1. Steve McQueen---
12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron---
3. David O. Russell---
American Hustle
4. Paul Greengrass---
Captain Phillips
5. Martin Scorsese---
The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Alexander Payne---
7. Spike Jonze---
8. Joel Coen & Ethan Coen---
Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Woody Allen---
Blue Jasmine
10. John Lee Hancock---
Saving Mr. Banks
11. Lee Daniels---
The Butler
12. Jean-Marc Vallee---
Dallas Buyers Club
13. Ryan Coogler---
Fruitvale Station 
14. Peter Berg---
Lone Survivor

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Eric Singer & David O. Russell---

American Hustle

2. Bob Nelson---


3. Melisa Wallack, Craig Borten---

Dallas Buyers Club

4. Woody Allen---Blue Jasmine

Spike Jonze---Her

6. Joel Coen & Ethan Coen---
Inside Llewyn Davis
7. Alfonso Cuarón & Jonas Cuarón---
8. Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith---
Saving Mr. Banks
9. Danny Strong---

The Butler

10. Ryan Coogler---

Fruitvale Station 

11. Nicole Holofcener---
Enough Said

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. John Ridley---
12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter---

The Wolf of Wall Street

Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope---Philomena

4. Billy Ray---Captain Phillips

5. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke---Before Midnight
6. Tracy Letts---

August: Osage County

7. Peter Berg---

Lone Survivor

8. Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix---
Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Foreign Language Film:
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Grandmaster
The Broken Circle
The Missing Picture
Two Lives

Best Documentary Feature:
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell


The Square

20 Feet to Stardom

Tim’s Vermeer
7. God Loves Uganda

Best Animated Feature:
1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
3. Monsters University
4. The Croods
5. Despicable Me 2
6. Ernest & Celestine
7. A Letter to Momo

Best Cinematography:
1. Emmanuel Lubezki---Gravity
2. Sean Bobbitt---12 Years a Slave
3. Barry Ackroyd---Captain Phillips
4. Phedon Papamichael---Nebraska
5. Bruno Delbonnel---

Inside Llewyn Davis


6. Roger Deakins---Prisoners

7. Hoyte van Hoytema---Her

8. Phillippe Le Sourd---

The Grandmaster

9. Frank G. DeMarco, Peter Zuccarini---

All is Lost

Best Editing:

1. Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger---Gravity

2. Christopher Rouse---Captain Phillips

3. Joe Walker---12 Years a Slave


Thelma Schoonmaker---The Wolf of Wall Street

5. Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers---American Hustle


6. Roderick Jaynes---Inside Llewyn Davis

7. Kevin Tent---Nebraska

8. Jeff Buchanan, Eric Zumbrunnen---Her

Best Original Score:

1. Hans Zimmer---12 Years a Slave

2. Steven Price---Gravity


Alexandre Desplat---Philomena
4. Thomas Newman---Saving Mr. Banks

5. Henry Jackman---Captain Phillips


6. John Williams---The Book Thief

7. William Butler and Owen Pallett---Her

Best Original Song:

1. Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez---Let It Go (Frozen)

2. Lana Del Rey---Young and Beautiful (The Great Gatsby)

3. U2---Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom)

4. Nicholas Britell---My Lord, Sunshine (12 Years A Slave)


Gladys Knight and Lenny Kravitz---You and I Ain't Nothing No More(The Butler)


6. Coldplay---Atlas (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)


Karen O---The Moon Song (Her)
8. Pharrell---Happy (Despicable Me 2)

9. Ed Sheeran---I See Fire (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)

Best Procution Design:
1. Andy Nicholson and Rosie Goodwin---Gravity
2. Adam Stochausen and Alice Baker---12 Years a Slave
3. Catherine Martin and Beverly Dunn---

The Great Gatsby

4. Dan Hennah and Ra Vincent---The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler---American Hustle
6. Jess Gonchor and Susan Bode---Inside Llewyn Davis

7. K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena---Her
8. Michael Corenblith and Lauren E. Polizzi---Saving Mr. Banks

Best Costume Design:
1. Catherine Martin---
The Great Gatsby

2. Patricia Norris---
12 Years a Slave

3. Michael Wilkinson---
American Hustle

4. Gary Jones---Oz: The Great and Powerful
5. Trish Summerville---The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
6. Michael Orlandi---Saving Mr. Banks
7. Casey Storm---Her
8. Ann Maskrey, Richard Taylor, and Bob Buck---The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
1. Evelyne Noraz and Lori McCoy-Bell---American Hustle
2. Ve Neill and Nikoletta Skarlatos---The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
3. Evelyne Noraz and Rachel Geary---Dallas Buyers’ Club
4. Joel Harlow, Mike Smithson, and Robin Beauschesne---The Lone Ranger
5. Candace Neal and Robert Stevenson---The Butler
6. Maurizio Silvi and Lesley Vanderwalt---The Great Gatsby

Best Special Effects:
1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Pacific Rim
4. Iron Man 3
5. Star Trek Into Darkness
6. The Great Gatsby
7. Rush

Best Sound Editing:

1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Iron Man 3
5. Lone Survivor
6. Rush
7. All is Lost
8. 12 Years a Slave
9. Pacific Rim

Best Sound Mixing:
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Iron Man 3
5. Lone Survivor
6. Rush
7. All is Lost
8. 12 Years a Slave
9. Pacific Rim

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