Oscar Predictions 2012: Round Five (Final Predictions!)

Best Picture:

And the Nominees are...

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

         This one is usually a pretty easy call. Heck, most of the categories are usually easy calls... but not this year. Zero Dark Thirty roared out of the gate, winning the majority of critics' awards, capping Top 10 lists left and right. Then came nomination morning, an early session that saw director Kathryn Bigelow left off the list, completely damning her film's chances of winning the big one. Why am I so certain? Because in the entire history of the Academy Awards, only three films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, most recently in 1990 (Driving Miss Daisy), all other examples reaching back to the 30's. These are the odds that are stacked against Argo, but you wouldn't know it by looking; the Ben Affleck potboiler has won every precursor under the sun, recognized by guilds maned by producers, directors, actors, screenwriters, and more. It's a hot streak that has just about everybody prognosticating in favor of the CIA thriller, but not me. Call me brave, or call me cowardly; I'm just not ready to jump ship on tradition. Give me Lincoln, both the film with the most, 'Academy-Friendly,' subject matter, and the movie with the most nominations. Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, Amour, and Beasts of the Southern Wild register as contenders on varying levels due to their Best Director nominations.

Final Prediction: Lincoln

Next in Line: Argo

If Things Get Crazy: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director:

And the Nominees are...

Michael Haneke---Amour

Ang Lee---Life of Pi

David O. Russell---Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg---Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin---Beasts of the Southern Wild

        First thing's first; Zeitlin's nomination was a wonderful, 'out-of-nowhere,' surprise, and we should be grateful for that, because the guy's got the chances of a snowball in hell. Ang Lee has been a fairly consistent figure through-out this year's award season, but Life of Pi almost feels like an afterthought at this point. That leaves a favorite (Spielberg, for reasons too obvious to explain), and a couple of underdogs. Russell's film is a crowd-pleaser of the finest caliber, and if they're feeling chipper (or just love great performances), he'll be the pick. Haneke, on the other hand, directs a film nearly stripped of all mirth, but he's a living legend among film buffs, and this feels like the best shot he'll ever have.

Final Prediction: Steven Spielberg---Lincoln

Next in Line: David O. Russell---Silver Linings Playbook

If Things Get Crazy: Michael Haneke---Amour

Best Actor:

And the Nominees are...

Bradley Cooper---Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis---Lincoln 

Hugh Jackman---Les Misérables

Joaquin Phoenix---The Master

Denzel Washington---Flight 

        This year's Oscars will be full of intrigue, many a category completely up in the air, unpredictability abounding. So let's not waste our time on the tonight's most obvious race; I know who's going to win, you know who's going to win, let's move on.

Final Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis---Lincoln

Next in Line: Bradley Cooper---Silver Linings Playbook

If Things Get Crazy: Hugh Jackman---Les Misérables

Best Actress:

And the Nominees are...

Jessica Chastain---Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence---Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva---Amour

Quvenzhané Wallis---Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts---The Impossible

        One of the evening's toughest categories to call, I feel comfortable taking both Wallis and Watts off the table right away. After that, it's anyone's guess. Chastain has leftover goodwill from last year's nomination (The Help), and this might be Oscar's only real chance to give the film props in a major category. Lawrence won the SAG, which makes her difficult to bet against, but Riva's story (the oldest Best Actress nominee in history, whose birthday is... wait for it... TODAY!) and stunning performance still might win out.

Final Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence---Silver Linings Playbook

Next in Line: Emmanuelle Riva---Amour

If Things Get Crazy: Jessica Chastain---Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor:

And the Nominees are:

Alan Arkin---Argo

Robert De Niro---Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman---The Master

Tommy Lee Jones---Lincoln

Christoph Waltz---Django Unchained

        And you thought Best Actress was a crap-shoot. This year's Best Supporting Actor field is literally the most wide-open acting category I've ever seen, all five contenders possessing a legitimate chance. Hoffman and Waltz have the most screen time, each delivering showy, memorable work in films that Oscar only kind of liked. Arkin, on the other hand, has the least exposure, but if Argo goes on a tear, watch out. De Niro must be tempting, an all-timer receiving his first nomination in two decades; handing him a third golden man on the same evening that Daniel Day-Lewis takes his home would be a great story. Still, I'm going Jones; his film seems like the won to beat, and the SAG win gives me faith.

Final Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones---Lincoln

Next in Line: Robert De Niro---Silver Linings Playbook

If Things Get Crazy: Christoph Waltz---Django Unchained (which reeeally wouldn't be that crazy)

Best Supporting Actress:

And the Nominees are...

Amy Adams---The Master

Sally Field---Lincoln

Anne Hathaway---Les Misérables

Helen Hunt---The Sessions

Jacki Weaver---Silver Linings Playbook

        This one has been Hathaway's to lose from the word, 'go,' so much so that I almost wonder if folks remembered to jot her name down, her film having lost serious momentum since the start of the season. Hunt's essentially a lead in her film, and her brave baring of flesh might keep her on voters' minds. Both Weaver and Field could get swept in if their respective movies start going on a rampage, Field especially. Congrats on your nomination, Adams, and enjoy the show.

Final Prediction: Anne Hathaway---Les Misérables

Next in Line: Sally Field---Lincoln

If Things Get Crazy: Helen Hunt---The Sessions (which would be kinda crazy)

Best Original Screenplay:

And the Nominees are...

Michael Haneke---Amour

Quentin Tarantino---Django Unchained

John Gatins---Flight

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola---Moonrise Kingdom 

Mark Boal---Zero Dark Thirty

        Oh, Zero Dark Thirty all the way... but then again... Impressive as Boal's script is, Oscar has already shown favoritism to Amour, and this might be the easiest way to put a statue in Haneke's hand. Django is filled with Tarantino dialogue, which always means your hat is in the ring. Flight and Moonrise Kingdom are just happy for the invite.

Final Prediction: Mark Boal---Zero Dark Thirty

Next in Line: Michael Haneke---Amour

If Things Get Crazy: Quentin Tarantino---Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay:

And the Nominees are...

Chris Terrio---Argo

Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin---Beasts of the Southern Wild

David Magee---Life of Pi

Tony Kushner---Lincoln

David O. Russell---Silver Linings Playbook

        They might as well call this one Best Picture: Argo and Lincoln are going head-to-head, and smart money has the winner of this one also landing the evening's top honor. If any other movie has a chance of making a run, it's Silver Linings Playbook, so don't scratch Russell's name out just yet. Beasts and Pi wouldn't feel like such second-teir contenders most year's, but tonight's Adapted Screenplay field is croooowded.

Final Prediction: Tony Kushner---Lincoln

Next in Line: Chris Terrio---Argo

If Things Get Crazy: David O. Russell---Silver Linings Playbook

Best Animated Feature:

And the Nominees are...

Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

Final Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

Next in Line: Brave

If Things Get Crazy: ParaNorman

Best Foreign Feature:

And the Nominees are...

Amour
War Witch
No
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki

Final Prediction: Amour

Next in Line: A Royal Affair

If Things Get Crazy: No

Best Cinematography:

And the Nominees are...

Anna Karenina---Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained---Robert Richardson
Life of Pi---Claudio Miranda
Lincoln---Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall---Roger Deakins

Final Prediction: Claudio Miranda---Life of Pi

Next in Line: Roger Deakins---Skyfall

If Things Get Crazy: Seamus McGarvey---Anna Karenina

Best Editing:

And the Nominees are...

Argo---William Goldenberg
Life of Pi---Tim Squyres
Lincoln---Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook---Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty---William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor

Final Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty---William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor

Next in Line: Argo---William Goldenberg

If Things Get Crazy: Lincoln---Michael Kahn

Best Production Design:

And the Nominees are...

Anna Karenina---Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey---Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, and Simon Bright
Les Misérables---Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi---David Gropman and Anna Pinnock
Lincoln---Rick Carter and Jim Erickson

Final Prediction: Life of Pi---David Gropman and Anna Pinnock

Next in Line: Les Misérables---Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson

If Things Get Crazy: Anna Karenina---Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer

Best Costume Design:

And the Nominees are...

Anna Karenina---Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables---Paco Delgado
Lincoln---Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror---Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman---Colleen Atwood

Final Prediction: Anna Karenina---Jacqueline Durran

Next in Line: Mirror Mirror---Eiko Ishioka

If Things Get Crazy: Snow White and the Huntsman---Colleen Atwood

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling:

And the Nominees are...

Hitchcock---Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, and Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey---Peter King, Rick Findlater, and Tami Lane
Les Misérables---Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Final Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey---Peter King, Rick Findlater, and Tami Lane

Next in Line: Les Misérables---Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

If Things Get Crazy: Hitchcock---Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, and Martin Samuel

Best Original Score:

And the Nominees are...

Anna Karenina---Dario Marianelli
Argo---Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi---Mychael Danna
Lincoln---John Williams
Skyfall---Thomas Newman

Final Prediction: Life of Pi---Mychael Danna

Next in Line: Argo---Alexandre Desplat

If Things Get Crazy: Anna Karenina---Dario Marianelli

Best Original Song:

And the Nominees are...

Chasing Ice---J. Ralph (Before My Time)
Les Misérables---Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, and Herbert Kretzmer (Suddenly)
Life of Pi---Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayshree (Pi's Lullaby)
Skyfall---Adele and Paul Epworth (Skyfall)
Ted---Walter Murphy and Seth MacFarlane (Everybody Needs a Best Friend)

Final Prediction: Skyfall---Adele and Paul Epworth (Skyfall)

Next in Line: Les Misérables---Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, and Herbert Kretzmer (Suddenly)

If Things Get Crazy: Ted---Walter Murphy and Seth MacFarlane (Everybody Needs a Best Friend)

Best Sound Mixing:

And the Nominees are...

Argo---John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, and José Antonio García
Les Misérables---Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes
Life of Pi---Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, and Drew Kunin
Lincoln---Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, and Ron Judkins
Skyfall---Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, and Stuart Wilson

Final Prediction: Les Misérables---Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes

Next in Line: Skyfall---Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, and Stuart Wilson

If Things Get Crazy: Lincoln---Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, and Ron Judkins

Best Sound Editing:

And the Nominees are...

Argo---Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
Django Unchained---Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi---Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
Skyfall---Per Hallberg and Karen M. Baker
Zero Dark Thirty---Paul N.J. Ottosson

Final Prediction: Skyfall---Per Hallberg and Karen M. Baker

Next in Line: Life of Pi---Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton

If Things Get Crazy: Argo---Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn

Best Visual Effects:

And the Nominees are...

The Avengers---Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, and Daniel Sudick
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey---Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, and R. Christopher White
Life of Pi---Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, and Donald Elliott
Prometheus---Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, and Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman---Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, and Michael Dawson

Final Prediction: Life of Pi---Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, and Donald Elliott

Next in Line: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey---Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, and R. Christopher White

If Things Get Crazy: The Avengers---Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, and Daniel Sudick

Best Documentary:

And the Nominees are...

Five Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Final Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man

Next in Line: How to Survive a Plague

If Things Get Crazy: The Gatekeepers

Hype Starts Here's Top 40 Movies of 2012:

40-26

25-11

10-1

Other End-of-2012 Movie Articles:

The Third Annual Elwyns (If Hype Starts Here was in charge of the Oscars)

Final Oscar Predictions

Oscar Recap

Early 2013 Predictions