Best Picture:
What's there to say that hasn't already been said? It's won a slew precursors, critics awards, guild nominations, and has really been way out in front of the pack for a while now. Missing a Best Picture nod is out of the question.
Spent a day or two at the front of the race a few months ago, and has since been sitting pretty in the runner-up spot. Just like the frontrunner, a snub from the Best Picture category seems impossible.
No, I don't think there's anyway that this one goes all the way and takes the night's biggest prize, but it's invitation has already been sent. It's the only movie of the bunch besides The Descendants to have scored noms from all four of the major guilds, the SAG, WGA, DGA, and PGA. (Actors, Writers, Directors, and Producers, in case you're not as nerdy as I am.)
4. Hugo (Previous Ranking: 3)
There was a point where I had more hope for this one to sneak up and win Best Picture. I'm not too confident about that anymore, but the fact that Hugo was recognized by every major guild except for SAG, in addition to having Martin Scorsese's name attached, seems to lock it in.
5. The Help (Previous Ranking: 5)
And to think that I ever doubted. The Help had a huge showing through-out the guilds, and will likely score three acting nominations. Add in the fact that it was an actually hit with audiences, and you've got another nominee.
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Previous Ranking: 9)
Through out the early awards season, I was championing this one as a big sleeper, only finally backing down in my previous rankings. I should have stuck to my guns: Dragon Tattoo managed to score nods from the WGA, PGA, and, most tellingly, the DGA, where David Fincher slotted in ahead of the likes of Steven Spielberg and Terrance Malick.
7. Moneyball (Previous Ranking: 7)
I used to think that this wasn't an emotionally resonant enough movie to play with the big boys, but guilds and precursors have proved me wrong. It sure helps to have Brad Pitt headlining your movie...
8. War Horse (Previous Ranking: 4)
I know, I know: This is crazy-low for a war epic from Steven Spielberg, but hear me out. The movie has already all but fizzled out in the American Box Office (albeit its initial showing was strong), and the movie only managed one measly guild nomination, it coming from the PGA, who still nominates ten movies despite the fact that Oscar will undoubtably slim down from that number. As a matter of fact, the whole Spielberg-In-War-Time vibe is all that it really has going for it, which I still think will be enough, but it's far from safe.
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As of now, I am predicting that these will be the Eight that get nominated (I don't have some crazy math equation that helped me determine the number, these just seem like the ones). The following is where I rank the next movies in line.
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9. Bridesmaids (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
I'm not ready to predict this one as a Best Picture nominee, but there's ample reason to view it as the most likely sleeper. After all, it received notices from three different guilds (PGA, WAG, and SAG), which is as many as all but two of the films listed above, more than War Horse, and more than any other film in the running.
10. The Ides of March (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
It sure doesn't feel like a Best Picture nominee, but there are a lot of people on board who Oscar absolutely loves, and it's out-of-nowhere PGA nod proved just that. If names are enough to get in, it's still in the race.
11. The Tree of Life (Previous Ranking: 8)
Yes, I finally had to give up on predicting my baby, after each and every single major guild agreed on snubbing Terrance Malick's movie. Still, the voting system is designed to reward movies with passionate support, and I still believe that there might be some of that hiding within the Academy.
12. Drive (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
Copy and Paste everything written under Tree of Life. No guild support, but real love might still be hiding out there.
13. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (Previous Ranking: 10)
No precursors to speak of, and weak Box Office numbers from its debut this last weekend. All signs point to no accept for one: Director Stephen Daldry has yet to direct a movie that wasn't a Best Picture nominee (Billy Elliott, The Hours, and The Reader), the last film cracking the line-up when no one saw it coming, swiping The Dark Knight's slot on the list. 9/11 subject matter, Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock... There are a few reasons not to take this off the list until it's all said and done.
How I Did: 7/9
Best Actor:
1. George Clooney (The Descendants) (Previous Ranking: 2)
If someone were to ask me to bet money on the Best Actor race right now, I would probably go run and hide. Clooney, Pitt, and Dujardin are in an impossibly close Three-Horse race. Clooney gets the nod for being a bigger name than Dujardin, and in a bigger movie than Pitt.
2. Jean Dujardin (The Artist) (Previous Ranking: 1)
The much loved lead performance, and from the most likely Best Picture winner. Enough said.
3. Brad Pitt (Moneyball) (Previous Ranking: 3)
I've had him ranked down at 3 all season, and even I wouldn't bat an eye if the Academy finally decided that it was his time, and just handed him the Oscar. Either way, his nomination is a lock.
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) (Previous Ranking: 4)
Huge name, huge role, small competition. I might not like it, but the SAG nod makes him look pretty solid for tomorrow morning.
5. Michael Fassbender (Shame) (Previous Ranking: 7)
Missed the SAG, and his film's NC-17 rating is cause for concern, but given the performance, and the amazing year he's been having, he seems the most likely.
--------------------------Most Likely to Sneak In----------------------------
6. Demian Bichir (A Better Life) (Previous Ranking: 6)
Really hasn't received any love other than the SAG nomination, but that's an award handed out from the Academy's ver biggest branch, so if all them like him...
7. Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) (Previous Ranking: 8)
A long shot to be sure, but he surprised recently for Revolutionary Road, and has a lot of critic support behind him.
8. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) (Previous Ranking: 5)
It seems as though only the BAFTAs have any real love for this movie, but Old man is long, long overdue, so don't rule him out.
How I Did: 3/5
Best Actress:
1. Viola Davis (The Help) (Previous Ranking: 4)
I've been a big doubter of her's all along, but even I can't deny that she's out in front at the moment. I still haven't wrapped my head around her actually winning, but I've been wrong up to this point, so who knows?
2. Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn) (Previous Ranking: 3)
Possibly my favorite spoiler on Oscar night, Williams has made a killing through the critic's awards, and playing an icon is something that Oscar almost always has the taste for, especially when it's a former nominee in the role.
3. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) (Previous Ranking: 1)
Still a big name in an enormous role, but being surrounded by three oscar-less performers seems pretty damning for her chances. Her nomination was essentially locked when she signed to do the movie.
4. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) (Previous Ranking: 4)
Once a frontrunner, now regulated to, "Happy to be there," status, with a chance of her nomination being suddenly swindled tomorrow morning. Still, probably a nod.5. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) (Previous Ranking: 5)
A much-loved former winner giving what's supposed to be an amazing performance, but the movie is so, so small.
--------------------------Most Likely to Sneak In----------------------------
6. Mara Rooney (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) (Previous Ranking: 6)
A big part of me is saying that she'll steal Close or Swinton's seat tomorrow, but I just don't quite have the guts to call it. I might be kicking myself tomorrow morning.
7. Charlize Theron (Young Adult) (Previous Ranking: 7)
Oscar has loved a Jason Reitman movie before, and the movie's showing at the WGA means at least someone likes it. Theron, a two-time nominee, is a friend as well.
8. Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia) (Previous Ranking: 8)
There's really no reason to believe in this one, but with a smattering of critics calling it the best of the year, maybe she'll sneak some #1 votes.
How I Did: 4/5
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) (Previous Ranking: 1)
Plummer has made this one boring race. He seems completely unbeatable at this point.
2. Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) (Previous Ranking: 2)
Not that I really think he stands a chance at the win, but he's the only other candidate who I feel has next to no chance of missing the nod.
3. Jonah Hill (Moneyball) (Previous Ranking: 4)
With SAGs and Globes and critics awards all in line with both his performance and film, he seems pretty safe.
4. Albert Brooks (Drive) (Previous Ranking: 2)
If Brooks nabs the nomination tomorrow morning, I'll move him right back to #2 for his veteran status and slew of critic notices. His missing out on the SAG just scares me.
5. Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
Has the support of the SAG, and with all of this love for Dragon Tattoo and Moneyball, it seems like the Academy is handing out consolation prizes to all those involved with The Social Network. Love very well might extend here.
--------------------------Most Likely to Sneak In----------------------------
6. Nick Nolte (Warrior) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
He got the SAG, and he's got veteran status on his side, but I just can't wrap my head around the Academy nominating anything from an Ultimate Fighting movie.
How I Did: 3/5
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer (The Help) (Previous Ranking: 1)
Looking awfully strong, and they're going to reward the movie somewhere. Her nomination is written in stone.
2. Bérénice Bejo (The Artist) (Previous Ranking: 2)
Sure to be swept in with all of The Artist love tomorrow morning, but wether she can actually win is another question entirely.
3. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) (Previous Ranking: 3)
So much love for this performance, it's insane. She's in the race to win it, drama advantage be damned!
4. Jessica Chastian (The Help) (Previous Ranking: 4)
She's looking good, and if she gets in, I might bump her up like I plan to with Brooks, but I'm still just worried about a split between this and her million other movies.
5. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) (Previous Ranking: 5)
Missing out on SAG has a lot of people worried, myself included, but I still think the size of her movie will be enough in the end.
--------------------------Most Likely to Sneak In----------------------------
6. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
She swiped Woodley's seat at the SAGs, but her movie is just so small, and, actually, not very well-received either.
How I Did: 4/5
Best Director:
1. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
2. Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
3. Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
4. David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
5. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
--------------------------Most Likely to Sneak In----------------------------
6. Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
7. Terrance Malick (The Tree of Life)
8. Tate Taylor (The Help)
9. Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)
How I Did: 4/5
Best Original Screenplay:
1. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
2. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
3. Kristin Wiig & Annie Mumolo (Bridesmaids)
4. Tom McCarthy (Win Win)
5. Will Reiser (50/50)
How I Did: 3/5
Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Nat Faxon, Jim Rash and Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
2. Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillan and Stan Chervin (Moneyball)
3. John Logan (Hugo)
4. Tate Talyor (The Help)
5. Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
How I Did: 3/5
Best Foreign Language Film
1. A Separation
2. In Darkness
3. Pina
How I Did: 3/5
Best Documentary Feature Film:
1. Project Nim
2. Pina
4. We Were Here
How I Did: 2/5
Best Animated Feature Film:
2. Rango
5. Cars 2
How I Did: 2/5
Best Cinematography:
1. Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life)
2. Robert Richardson (Hugo)
3. Guillaume Schiffman (The Artist)
4. Jeff Cronenweth (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
5. Hoyte van Hoytema (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
How I Did: 4/5
Best Editing:
1. Anne-Sophie Bion (The Artist)
2. Thelma Schoonmaker (Hugo)
3. Michael Kahn (War Horse)
4. Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
5. Kevin Tent (The Descendants)
How I Did: 4/5
Best Original Score:
1. Ludovic Bource (The Artist)
2. Howard Shore (Hugo)
3. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
4. Dario Marianelli (Jane Eyre)
5. John Williams (War Horse)
How I Did: 3/5
Best Original Song:
1. Life's a Happy Song (The Muppets)
2. The Living Proof (The Help)
3. Lay your Head Down (Albert Nobbs)
4. Hello Hello (Gnomeo & Juliet)
5. Man or a Muppet (The Muppets)
How I Did: 1/2
Best Art Direction:
1. Laurence Bennett (The Artist)
2. Dante Ferretti (Hugo)
3. Stuart Craig (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
4. Sebastian Krawinkel (Anonymous)
5. Maria Djurkovic (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
How I Did: 3/5
Best Visual Effects:
2. Hugo
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
4. The Tree of Life
How I Did: 4/5
Best Costume Design:
1. Mark Bridges (The Artist)
2. Sandy Powell (Hugo)
3. Arianne Phillips (W.E.)
4. Michael O'Connor (Jane Eyre)
5. Sharen Davis (The Help)
How I Did: 4/5
Best Makeup:
1. The Iron Lady
2. The Artist
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
How I Did: 2/3
Best Sound Mixing:
1. Hugo
2. Super 8
3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. Hanna
How I Did: 2/5
Best Sound Editing:
1. Hugo
2. Super 8
3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
How I Did: 3/5
How I Did: 68/104: 65%
How I Did in Major Categories: 31/44: 70%
Nominations I Hadn't Ranked in Categories in which Alternates were Listed:
Max von Sydow---Best Supporting Actor (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
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