Rave reviews everywhere it's played, over-due director, and V.I.M. (very important movie) status. No 2013 release has really come out and declared itself the frontrunner. As of now, 12 is looking like the movie to beat.
2. Gravity (Previous Ranking: 3)
Tough one to rank: I find it pretty hard to envision the film winning best picture, but missing out on a nomination seems even more impossible. We'll go with #2.
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
(Previous Ranking: 8)
As if the Academy's pre-existing love of the Coen brothers wasn't enough, the film has been killing it on the festival circuit. Missing out on the big race would be a substantial surprise at this point.
4. Captain Phillips (Previous Ranking: 6)
Already both a critical and box office favorite, CP should clean up in the technical categories. I personally don't see any real impediments on its path to nomination-town.
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Previous Ranking: 1)
As previously mentioned, a Scorsese movie near the end of the year is almost a lock on principle. The fact that the four films listed above already have their staunch advocates causes TWoWS to slip a bit, but if early word is positive, watch out.
6. American Hustle (Previous Ranking: 5)
Same as above, only David O. Russell isn't quite at Martin Scorsese levels just yet. That said, the academy LOVED his last two flicks (The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook).
7. Nebraska (Previous Ranking: 7)
Yet again we have a film-maker who's previously found himself on Oscar's, 'good list.' The pictures' smaller scale has me a little worried, but early word has been resoundingly positive.
8. Blue Jasmine (Previous Ranking: 49)
It's Woody! It's Cate! It's on a very, very (see: very) short list of films Oscar was actually interested in during the first half of 2013. Ironically, that might help it stand out in voters' minds.
9. The Butler (Previous Ranking: 26)
Huge box office success, 'important,' subject matter... and Oprah. Who cares if the reviews were mixed? There's plenty of pedigree here.
10. Saving Mr. Banks (Previous Ranking: 13)
A film set within Walt Disney Studios? About the making of Mary Poppins? Starring previous winners Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson? There's a lot to like here, even if the film remains unseen.
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As of now, I am predicting these ten films to be nominated (I don't have some crazy math equation that helped me determine this number; these just seem like the ones). The following is where I rank the next movies in line.
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11. August: Osage County (Previous Ranking: 11)
12. All is Lost (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
13. Dallas Buyers Club (Previous Ranking: 24)
14. Her (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
15. Labor Day (Previous Ranking: 29)
16. Before Midnight (Previous Ranking: 10)
17. Philomena (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
18. Out of the Furnace (Previous Ranking: 21)
19. Mud (Previous Ranking: 22)
20. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
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