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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Oscar Predictions 2012: Round Four (Final Nomination Predictions)

Best Picture:
1. Lincoln (Previous Ranking: 3)
        I jumped the gun on my Round Three predictions, bumping Lincoln down simply because I expected some of 2012's late-comers to dethrone it. So far, they have not, and while that still might change, Honest Abe resumes the top spot for now.
2. Argo (Previous Ranking: 4)
        Yet another early bloomer who I'd expected to lose more steam by now, 'Ben Affleck's Argo,' might not have the same ring as, 'Steven Spielberg's Lincoln,' but it is a full-on lock for a nomination in the big category.
3. Les Miserables (Previous Ranking: 1)
         I expected Les Mis to be HUGE, with its ridiculous pedigree, star-studded cast, Oscar-winning director, and the utmost minimum of genre competition of late. But it wasn't huge; it was merely very big. Enough for a nod, but it's chances of winning have soured.
4. Zero Dark Thirty (Previous Ranking: 2)
         This movie is seemingly every bit as locked as the three above it, but the fact that nearly no one has seen it (besides the critics and voters who continuously shower it with praise) allows it to slide to the bottom of the top tier. Still, feel safe betting the farm that it gets in.
5. Silver-Linings Playbook (Previous Ranking: 5)
        Not quite as locked as the four above it, but waaaay more likely than anything listed below, the dramady hasn't rung up the box office cash that one might have expected, and its director has been a no-show on many a ballot. My days of thinking SLP could sneak up and steal Best Picture are over, but my faith in its nomination remains unwavering.
6. Life of Pi (Previous Ranking: 6)
         A clear line divides the top five, and the rest of this list. While Life of Pi has done next to nothing to convince me that it's in the same league (Osacr odds-wise) as anything at the top of the page, having Ang Lee's name attached, as well as being the most impressive effects movie of the year, should be enough.
7. Django Unchained (Previous Ranking: 7)
        I can hardly believe I have this movie ranked so highly, but what's going to beat it? The Academy obviously warmed up to Tarantino quite a bit last time around with Inglourious Basterds, but this still seems a bit much for their often delicate sensibilities. That said, it's a big hit in a year searching far and wide to fill out its roster, and other clear options are sparse.
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Previous Ranking: 8)
        Want to hear how uncomfortable I am with this prediction? I honestly only have it here because I can't imagine Oscar slimming all the way down to seven nominees after having nine last year. Beasts seems next in line, and will (hopefully) have some pockets of passionate voter support, but it's still absurdly small, and by no one you've ever heard of.  

As of now, I am predicting that these will be the eight that get nominated (I don't have some crazy math equation that helped me determine the number, these just seem like the ones). The following is where I rank the next movies in line.
9. Skyfall (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
        I know, I know, I'm pretty damn late to the waterhole on this one, but I just couldn't believe in the chances of a James Bond movie until I saw the proof. Then came the SAGs, the PGA's and BAFTA, and suddenly I'm looking at Skyfall as the year's biggest potential spoiler.
10. Moonrise Kingdom (Previous Ranking: 15)
        Yet another one that I haven't been taking seriously enough, MK might be able to land the requisite #1 votes it needs to get in. Are they ready to embrace Wes Anderson in the big race?

11. The Master (Previous Ranking: 9)
        The Master came out months ago, failed to gain a real following, was widely agreed upon to perhaps be too strange for true Oscar consideration, and then its star said that he didn't want one, anyways. There's a lot going against this one, but it's still got incredible prestige in every area, which means it's got a pulse.
12. Amour (Previous Ranking: 14)
         I still don't like this movie's odds, set in almost exclusively one location, starring a couple of older unknowns, and presented in a foreign language. But the thinking remains that a sizable facet might be clamoring to name it the best film of the year, and that passion counts.

13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Previous Ranking: 12)
        I know it's not Lord of the Rings, but there are a handful of reasons to keep this one on the radar. It's a bonafide global hit at this point, will have voters' attention regardless because of all the tech nods it's sure to rack up, and the Academy has shown their love for Middle Earth before... three times, in fact.

14. The Impossible (Previous Ranking: 10)
        It feels like this one never really got off the ground, but who knows what's going on behind the curtains? Naomi Watts seems like a pretty strong bet in the Best Actress category, which will put Oscar's favorite thing (and inspirational true story), and put it right in front of his nose. Why not?

15. Hitchcock (Previous Ranking: 16)
         The behind-the-curtain theory returns: I literally have not met a single person who's even seen this film, but it's about the movie industry itself, and one of its patron saints. There's always a chance that Oscar wants to pat himself on the back.

How I Did: 8/9

Best Actor:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln(Previous Ranking: 1)
        2-6, this category is nearly impossible to call. Thank god for Day-Lewis, who's already writing his Oscar speech.
2. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables(Previous Ranking: 5)
         There will be plenty of Les Mis love tomorrow morning, which makes Jackman feel the safest in such an uncertain category.
3. John Hawkes (The Sessions(Previous Ranking: 3)
         There's been group-think for many months that his nod is a lock, but his name is by far the smallest of the aspirants, as is his movie. I'm still saying go, but I wouldn't be surprised.
4. Bradley Cooper (Silver-Lingings Playbook(Previous Ranking: 4)
         The undoubted protagonist of an undoubted Best Picture nominee, I just still worry that sections of the Academy might see him as, 'that Hangover guy.'
5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master(Previous Ranking: 2)
         What an embarrassment it would be to see Phoenix, who gave the performance of the year, left off the top five. The SAG snub feels awfully ominous, but I'm banking on Oscar coming to his senses.
6. Denzel Washington (Flight(Previous Ranking: 6)
         Truly just as likely as anyone listed below Day-Lewis, I see Washington as the odd man out because he's the only thespian listed 2-6 who already has a golden man to his name, and his film is unlikely to gain traction in other categories.
7. Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock) (Previous Ranking: 7)
         With the five listed above in an absolute blood-bath for the final four slots, I see Hopkins as having next to no chance, but that's the difference between him and everyone below: he has some chance.

How I Did: 4/5

Best Actress:
1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty(Previous Ranking: 1)
        This one looks to be one of the most heavily-contested two-horse races in recent memory. Picking between her and Lawrence is tough, but ZDT will likely be a heavier hitter, and thus, I give her the edge.
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver-Linings Playbook(Previous Ranking: 2)
         Toss-up with the lovely lady listed just above her, the humorous nature of Lawrence's film might hold her back from the win, but a nomination is ensured.
3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible(Previous Ranking: 6)
         The Impossible is a tough one to figure out, but Watts' performance got the nod from SAG, she's a previous nominee, and her movie's in English. That should be enough.
4. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone(Previous Ranking: 4)
         A previous winner whom Oscar seems eager to reward at every possible turn, Cotillard ranks below Watts on the grounds of the language she speaks in her film.

5. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild(Previous Ranking: 3)
         Lord knows it's tough to actually predict a six-year-old in a lead acting category, but her movie will be seen, which is more than I can say for all other applicants listed below.

6. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock(Previous Ranking: 8)
         Damn The Impossible and Hitchcock, you're making things so hard on me! I have no idea how much love will be headed in the direction of Mirren or her movie, but she got the SAG, and that makes her next in line.
7. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour(Previous Ranking: 5)
         Everyone who's seen the movie absolutely worships this performance, but that's just it: How many will actually see it?
8. Meryl Streep (Hope Springs(Previous Ranking: 9)
         Yeah, there's no reason to think this... except that she's Meryl. Enough said.        
9. Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz(Previous Ranking: 10)
         Baby Meryl's performance was more touted, and while there's next to no buzz at this time, Oscar loves to nominate Williams.

How I Did: 4/5

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln(Previous Ranking: 2)
         Still, even now, I don't like his chances for the win, but he's the only one on this list who would truly blow my mind by being left off, and since this article is all about nominations, to the top he goes.
2. Robert DeNiro (Silver-Linings Playbook(Previous Ranking: 4)
         DeNiro's first nomination in over two decades would be a welcome story, not to mention he's in one of 2012's heavy-weights, and actually deserves it.
3. Alan Arkin (Argo(Previous Ranking: 5)
        File it under, 'how do we show Argo even more love?' Arkin's not really in it for the win, but I see him making the cut.
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master(Previous Ranking: 3)
        He got the SAG, he's one of Oscar's favs, and he's practically the lead in his movie. I just can't shake the thought that Oscar might really not dig The Master.
5. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
        I'm thinking one of the Django boys gets in, and it's really anyone's guess who. With more hype thus far, I'll go against the size of the name, and say Waltz.

6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained(Previous Ranking: 1)
          I love, love, love Leo's chances to win an Oscar if he gets in, but the invite might be the real issue here. Still, Oscar does love his villains, as well as his over-due actors.
7. Javier Bardem (Skyfall) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
        Just how much love will Skyfall get? I'm not the least bit certain, but I harbor a fleeting suspicion that either Bardem or Dench will show up in the Supporting categories.
7. Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike(Previous Ranking: 10)
        McConaughey just won't go away. He's received major props from a variety of different outlets throughout the season... buuuut he's still in a movie about male strippers.
8. Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables(Previous Ranking: 6)
        How big is Les Mis going to be tomorrow morning? We'll know the second that they announce Supporting Actor. If Redmayne gets in, expect an avalanche.
9. Ewan McGregor (The Impossible(Previous Ranking: 7)
         I know, I'm as sick of writing it as you are of reading it, but the fact remains: The Impossible has Oscar bait written all over it, and counting it out, even with its buzz on life support, seems foolish.

How I Did: 5/5

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables(Previous Ranking: 1)
        It really says something when Daniel Day-Lewis plays Abraham Lincoln in a given year, and still isn't the season's biggest front-runner. Signed, sealed, delivered.
2. Sally Field (Lincoln(Previous Ranking: 2)
        Lincoln's supportive wife? She's a previous winner? She's tough, but she also breaks down and cries? Have we sent the invite yet?
3. Amy Adams (The Master(Previous Ranking: 4)
        One of Oscar's favorite ladies stars in a total actors' showcase. Even if the Academy ditches The Master at large, this category is too wide-open to envision a slight.
4. Helen Hunt (The Sessions) (Previous Ranking: 3)
        Like her co-star Hawkes, Hunt has been assumed as, 'in,' for so long that one wonders if voters even remembered to write her down. Still, me thinks so.

5. Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel(Previous Ranking: 10)
        She got the SAG nod, which is positively huge. In this vacant of a category, that's enough for me.

6. Judi Dench (Skyfall) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
        As previously stated, I'm expecting Skyfall to show up big somewhere... apparently I just don't have the guts to actually call it.
7. Ann Dowd (Compliance) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
        She might have her supporters, but has anyone actually seen this movie? She'll need a lot of #1 votes to land safely.
8. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) (Previous Ranking: Unranked)
        This would be completely insane, but hey, she's well known, well liked, and already landed the SAG slot. Stranger things have happened.
9. Jacki Weaver (Silver-Linings Playbook(Previous Ranking: 8)
        She's a part of the cast of the year, and there might be some leftover goodwill from her Animal Kingdom showing.
10. Samantha Barks (Les Miserables(Previous Ranking: 6)
        Just as with Redmayne, this is one that only flies if Oscar goes absolutely nuts for Les Mis.

How I Did: 4/5

Best Director:
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Ben Affleck (Argo)
3. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
4. Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
5. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
6. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
7. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
8. Michael Haneke (Amour)
9. Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
10. Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

How I Did: 2/5

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
3. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
5. Michael Haneke (Amour)

6. Rain Johnson (Looper)
7. John Gatins (Flight)
8. Sergio G. Sanchez (The Impossible)
9. Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano (The Intouchables)

How I Did: 4/5

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
2. Chris Terrio (Argo)
3. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
4. David Magee (Life of Pi)
5. Lucy Alibar and Ben Zietlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

6. William Nicholson (Les Miserables)
7. Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
8. Philipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo del Toro, and Fran Walsh (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
9. John C. McLaughlin (Hitchcock)

How I Did: 5/5

Best Foreign Language Film:
1. Amour
4. No

9. Sister

How I Did: 4/5

Best Documentary Feature Film:

How I Did: 3/5

Best Animated Feature Film:
1. Brave

How I Did: 4/5

Best Cinematography:
1. Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi)
2. Janusz Kaminski (Lincoln)
3. Roger Deakins (Skyfall)
4. Mihai Malaimare, Jr. (The Master)
5. Danny Cohen (Les Miserables)

6. Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina)
7. Rodrigo Preito (Argo)
8. Ben Richardson (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
9. Wally Pfister (The Dark Knight Rises)

How I Did: 3/5

Best Editing:
1. Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. William Goldenberg (Argo)
3. Michael Kahn (Lincoln)
4. Chris Dickens (Les Miserables)
5. Stuart Baird (Skyfall)

6. Tim Squyres (Life of Pi)
7. Fred Raskin (Django Unchained)
8. Peter McNulty (The Master)
9. Lee Smith (The Dark Knight Rises)
10. Jeffrey Ford and Lisa Lassek (The Avengers)

How I Did: 3/5

Best Original Score:
1. Alexandre Desplat (Argo)
2. John Williams (Lincoln)
3. Mychael Danna (Life of Pi)
4. Dan Romer and Benh Zietlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
5. Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, and Tom Tykwer (Cloud Atlas)

6. Alexandre Desplat (Zero Dark Thirty)
7. Johnny Greenwood (The Master)
8. Danny Elfman (Frankenweenie)
9. Dario Marianelli (Anna Karenina)
10. Howard Shore (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

How I Did: 3/5

Best Original Song:
1. Skyfall (Skyfall)
2. Suddenly (Les Miserables)
3. Learn Me Right (Brave)
4. Ancora Qui (Django Unchained)

How I Did: 2/5

Best Art Direction:
1. Rick Carter, Jim Erickson, and Peter T. Frank (Lincoln)
2. Eve Stewart (Les Miserables)
3. Sharon Seymour (Argo)
4. Dan Hannah (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
5. J. Michael Riva (Django Unchained)

How I Did: 3/5

Best Visual Effects:
1. Life of Pi
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. The Avengers
4. Prometheus
5. Cloud Atlas

How I Did: 4/5

Best Costume Design:
1. Jacqueline Durran (Anna Karenina)
2. Joanna Johnston (Lincoln)
3. Paco Delgado (Les Miserables)
4. Eiko Ishioka (Mirror Mirror)
5. Kym Barrett and Pierre Yves-Gayraud (Cloud Atlas)

How I Did: 4/5

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables

How I Did: 2/3

Best Sound Editing:
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. The Avengers
3. Life of Pi
4. Skyfall
5. Les Miserables

How I Did: 2/5

Best Sound Mixing:
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. Les Miserables
3. Life of Pi
4. Skyfall
5. Zero Dark Thirty

How I Did: 3/5

Films with Multiple Predicted Nominations:
Les Miserables: 13
Lincoln: 12
Life of Pi: 8
Django Unchained: 5
Skyfall: 5
Silver Linings Playbook: 5

Zero Dark Thirty: 5

Beasts of the Southern Wild: 4
The Master: 4
Cloud Atlas: 3
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: 3

The Avengers: 2

Brave: 2
The Dark Knight Rises: 2
The Sessions: 2

Predicted Nominations in Major Categories:
Lincoln: 6

Les Miserables: 5

Silver Linings Playbook: 5
Zero Dark Thirty: 4
Django Unchained: 3
Life of Pi: 3
The Master: 3
Beasts of the Southern Wild: 2
The Sessions: 2

How I Did: 76/107: 71%
How I Did in Major Categories: 36/44: 82%

Nominations I Hadn't Ranked in Categories in which Alternates were listed:
Ben Zeitlin---Best Director (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Robert Richardson---Best Cinematography (Django Unchained)

Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers---Best Editing (Silver Linings Playbook)
Thomas Newman---Best Score (Skyfall)


  1. You are blessed with the gift of foresight.

  2. I'm pretty sure that 82% is a B-, but I'll still take the compliment.

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