Oscar Predictions 2011: Round Five (Final Predictions!)

Best Picture:
And the Nominees are...

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

War Horse

        If we're being honest, the biggest prize of the night is set to be a snoozer. After winning the PGA (Producer's Guild of America), cleaning up in critics' circles, and scoring a hefty 10 Academy Award nominations, The Artist seems just about unbeatable, but a few challengers still linger in the ranks. Martin Scorsese's Hugo led all movies with a staggering 11 nominations, though the fact that none of those came in acting categories is a major reason for concern. The Help, conversely, features the year's most beloved cast, and a very voter-friendsly subject, but its low nomination total (4) sure doesn't show much support for the flick beyond the thespians who will be checking off ballots. The rest feel like they're on the outside looking in at this point.

Final Prediction: The Artist

Next in Line: Hugo

If Things Get Crazy: The Help

Best Director:

And the Nominees are...

Woody Allen---Midnight in Paris

Michel Hazanavicius---The Artist

Terrence Malick---The Tree of Life

Alexander Payne---The Descendants 

Martin Scorsese---Hugo

        Bet against Hazanavicius at your own risk. Not only is he that man behind the all-but-certain Best Picture winner, but he also won the DGA (Directors Guild of America) last month, a precursor that has existed for over 60 years, and has only disagreed with the Academy's choice 6 times, most recently in 2002. If anyone can take it from him, it's Scorsese, who still owns just one golden man despite being widely considered one of the all-time greats, directing a movie about what the Academy really loves... movies. Being a surprise nominee shows that Malick has more support than one initially thought, but he's a pretty big long-shot. No one really believes that this is Woody's finest hour, and Payne just never had the momentum in the first place.

Final Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius---The Artist

Next in Line: Martin Scorsese---Hugo

If Things Get Crazy: Terrence Malick---The Tree of Life

Best Actor:

And the Nominees are...

Demián Bichir---A Better Life

George Clooney---The Descendants

Jean Dujardin---The Artist

Gary Oldman---Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt---Moneyball

        Hard to believe that a non-speaking Frenchman could really unseat Clooney, but it's sure looking that way. Much like his director, Dujardin is not only a part of the biggest flick of the night, but also won  the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) leading in to the big show. Clooney, always an Oscar favorite, still threatens to steal his first Best Actor prize, though his somewhat recent Supporting Actor victory (Syriana) seems pretty damning to his odds. Pitt could also be the beneficiary of some Movie Star love, and he hasn't won anything yet, so... maybe? Bichir and Oldman are just happy to be invited.

Final Prediction: Jean Dujardin---The Artist

Next in Line: George Clooney---The Descendants

If Things Get Crazy: Brad Pitt---Moneyball

Best Actress:

And the Nominees are...

Glenn Close---Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis---The Help

Rooney Mara---The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep---The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams---My Week with Marilyn

        Despite my previous claims otherwise, it is clear now that Viola Davis is the frontrunner, and has been for some time. Streep's got a chance to knock her off, but with 17 career acting nominations, and only two wins, the Academy obviously doesn't mind sending her home empty-handed. The race is mostly between those two, but Williams could benefit from playing a real-life icon. Mara gets in on the New Face slot that the Best Actress roster almost always has, and Close is rewarded for her passion project with a nod, a win remaining completely out of the question.

Final Prediction: Viola Davis---The Help

Next in Line: Meryl Streep---The Iron Lady

If Things Get Crazy: Michelle Williams---My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor:

And the Nominees are:

Kenneth Branagh---My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill---Moneyball

Nick Nolte---Warrior

Christopher Plummer---Beginners

Max von Sydow---Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

        The biggest snoozer of the whole night, Plummer has had this thing in the bag since the middle of 2011. He's got veteran status (he'll be the oldest acting winner ever), and plays a sagely sort, who even has cancer! It's the kind of role that Oscar eats right up, and if there's any way whatsoever to take down Plummer, it's also down the veteran's path. That's why you can't quite rule out von Sydow, or, to a lesser degree, Branagh.

Final Prediction: Christopher Plummer---Beginners

Next in Line: Max von Sydow---Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

If Things Get Crazy: Kenneth Branagh---My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actress:

And the Nominees are...

Bérénice Bejo---The Artist

Jessica Chastain---The Help

Melissa McCarthy---Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer---Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer---The Help

        This one belongs to Spencer, the winner of the SAG, and the frontrunner here for months. If The Artist goes on an absolute rampage, Bejo might be swept up in it, which keeps her in the race. And McCarthy... let's face it, for as absurd role to get a nomination, there has to be some real support. I won't count her out.

Final Prediction: Octavia Spencer---The Help

Next in Line: Bérénice Bejo---The Artist

If Things Get Crazy: Melissa McCarthy---Bridesmaids

Best Original Screenplay:

And the Nominees are...

The Artist---Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids---Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo

Margin Call---J.C. Chandor

Midnight in Paris---Woody Allen

A Separation---Asghar Farhadi

        Usually, a heavyweight the size of The Artist would gobble this prize right up, but there's just one problem: There's nearly no dialogue. That puts Woody in the driver's seat, though the silent flick still has a solid chance. Being a foreign film invited to this category shows some love for A Separation, though its odds remains slim.

Final Prediction: Midnight in Paris---Woody Allen

Next in Line: The Artist---Michel Hazanavicius

If Things Get Crazy: A Separation---Asghar Farhadi

Best Adapted Screenplay:

And the Nominees are...

The Descendants---Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash

Hugo---John Logan

The Ides of March---George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon

Moneyball---Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, and Stan Chervin

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy---Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan

        The Descendants and Moneyball are in a neck-and-neck race here, the closest of all the major categories, but the former film might have dealt the final blow by winning the WGA (Writers Guild of America). They remain in a dead heat, with the recent passing of Tinker Tailor scribe Bridget O'Conner keeping the film in voter's minds

Final Prediction: The Descendants---Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash

Next in Line: Moneyball---Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, and Stan Chervin

If Things Get Crazy: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy---Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan


Best Animated Feature:
And the Nominees are...

A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung-Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango


Final Prediction: Rango
Next in Line: Puss in Boots
If Things Get Crazy: Kung-Fu Panda 2


Best Foreign Feature:
And the Nominees are...

Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation


Final Prediction: A Separation
Next in Line: In Darkness
If Things Get Crazy: Bullhead


Best Cinematography:
And the Nominees are...

The Artist---Guillaume Schiffman
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo---Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo---Robert Richardson
The Tree of Life---Emmanuel Lubezki
War Horse---Janusz Kaminski


Final Prediction: The Tree of Life---Emmanuel Lubezki
Next in Line: The Artist---Guillaume Schiffman
If Things Get Crazy: Hugo---Robert Richardson


Best Editing:
And the Nominees are...

The Artist---Anne-Sophie Bion, and Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants---Kevin Tent
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo---Angus Wall, and Kirk Baxter
Hugo---Thelma Schoonmaker
Moneyball---Christopher Tellefsen


Final Prediction: The Artist---Anne-Sophie Bion, and Michel Hazanavicius
Next in Line: Hugo---Thelma Schoonmaker
If Things Get Crazy: The Descendants---Kevin Tent


Best Art Direction:
And the Nominees are...

The Artist---Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2---Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan
Hugo---Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo
Midnight in Paris---Anne Seibel and Hélène Dubreuil
War Horse---Rick Carter and Lee Sandales


Final Prediction: Hugo---Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo
Next in Line: The Artist---Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould
If Things Get Crazy: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2---Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan


Best Costume Design:
And the Nominees are...

Anonymous---Lisy Christl
The Artist---Mark Bridges
Hugo---Sandy Powell
Jane Eyre---Michael O'Connor
W.E.---Arianne Phillips


Final Prediction: Hugo---Sandy Powell
Next in Line: The Artist---Mark Bridges
If Things Get Crazy: W.E.---Arianne Phillips


Best Make-Up:
And the Nominees are...

Albert Nobbs---Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, and Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2---Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, and Lisa Tomblin
The Iron Lady---Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland


Final Prediction: The Iron Lady---Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
Next in Line: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2---Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, and Lisa Tomblin
If Things Get Crazy: Albert Nobbs---Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, and Matthew W. Mungle


Best Original Score:
And the Nominees are...

The Adventures of Tintin---John Williams
The Artist---Ludovic Bource
Hugo---Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy---Alberto Iglesias
War Horse---John Williams

Final Prediction: The Artist---Ludovic Bource
Next in Line: Hugo---Howard Shore
If Things Get Crazy: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy---Alberto Iglesias


Best Original Song:
And the Nominees are...

The Muppets---Bret McKenzie (Man or Muppet)
Rio---Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, and Siedah Garrett (Real in Rio)


Final Prediction: The Muppets---Bret McKenzie (Man or Muppet)
Next in Line: Rio---Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, and Siedah Garrett (Real in Rio)
If Things Get Crazy: ...They'll save us the time, and eliminate this category altogether.

Best Sound Mixing:
And the Nominees are...

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo---David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, and Bo Persson
Hugo---Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
Moneyball---Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, and Ed Novick
Transformers: Dark of the Moon---Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Peter J. Devlin
War Horse---Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, and Stuart Wilson


Final Prediction: Hugo---Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
Next in Line: War Horse---Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, and Stuart Wilson
If Things Get Crazy: Moneyball---Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, and Ed Novick


Best Sound Editing:
And the Nominees are...

Drive---Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo---Ren Klyce
Hugo---Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
Transformers: Dark of the Moon---Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
War Horse---Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom


Final Prediction: Hugo---Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
Next in Line: War Horse---Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom
If Things Get Crazy: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo---Ren Klyce


Best Visual Effects:
And the Nominees are...

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2---Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, and John Richardson
Hugo---Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, and Alex Henning
Real Steel---Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, and Swen Gillberg
Rise of the Planet of the Apes---Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, and Daniel Barrett
Transformers: Dark of the Moon---Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, and John Frazier


Final Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes---Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, and Daniel Barrett
Next in Line: Hugo---Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, and Alex Henning
If Things Get Crazy: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2---Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, and John Richardson


Best Documentary:
And the Nominees are...

Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front 
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated


Final Prediction: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Next in Line: Pina
If Things Get Crazy: Undefeated


Best Documentary Short:
And the Nominees are...

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom 


Final Prediction: Saving Face
Next in Line: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom 
If Things Get Crazy: Incident in New Baghdad


Best Live-Action Short:
And the Nominees are...

Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic 


Final Prediction: The Shore
Next in Line: Tuba Atlantic
If Things Get Crazy: Raju


Best Animated Short:
And the Nominees are...

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Sunday


Final Prediction: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Next in Line: Wild Life
If Things Get Crazy: Sunday

Hype Starts Here's Top 40 Movies of 2011:

40-26

25-11

10-1

Coming Oscar Week:

The Second Annual Elwyns (If Hype Starts Here was in charge of the Oscars)

Final Oscar Predictions

Oscar Recap (Coming 2-27-2012)