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Monday, January 24, 2011

2010 Oscar Nominations Predictions: Part 1

        It's actually pretty embarrassing how excited I get for this day every year. Tomorrow, at 5:30 am, pacific time, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their nominees for the 83rd Academy Awards. Yes, I know that not as many watch the awards as used to, and that many view the presence of Ten Best Picture Nominees as tarnishing the honor. What I personally believe that folks fail to realize about the Oscars is that people who are nerdy and obsessive about movies like me (and there are kind of a silly number of us out there) will always care what Oscar has to say, and a nomination in a major category goes a long ways towards insuring that your movie is watched fifteen years from now. Also, trying to predict Oscar's ways is just plain fun, so I'm going to stop blabbing about it. Here we go:


*NOTE 2: I ran out of time before work today, so the second half of my predictions will be up later tonight*
Best Supporting Actor
        Christian Bale seems to have walked away with just about every precursor for his amazing performance as Dicky Eklund in The Fighter, but after him, the field is extremely open. Geoffrey Rush is next in line for The King's Speech, but those are the only two that I would bet any real sum of money on. Mark Ruffalo seems likely for The Kids Are Alright, and I expect Jeremy Renner to ride some leftover Hurt Locker love to a nomination for The Town. That leaves one last particularly tricky spot to fill in. Andrew Garfield has gotten some love for The Social Network, but I've got a feeling that having a small name in a year where nothing is settled won't work out for him. The recent death of Pete Postlethwaite could land him in the race for The Town, and the lack of a previous nomination could bode well for Same Rockwell for Conviction. Forgetting all about Matt Damon in True Grit might not be the best idea, either. But I'm going to go a bit out of my comfort zone, and selecting John Hawkes. I predict that Winter's Bone will get some more attention than people really expect, and I'm banking on him getting swept in along with it:

1. Christian Bale---The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush---The King's Speech
3. Mark Ruffalo---The Kids Are Alright
4. Jeremy Renner---The Town
5. John Hawkes---Winter's Bone
6. Andrew Garfield---The Social Network
7. Pete Postlethwaite---The Town
8. Matt Damon---True Grit
9. Bill Murray---Get Low
10. Sam Rockwell---Conviction

How I Did: 5/5

Best Original Screenplay
        Possibly one of the easier categories to predict, especially ever since the Best Picture field was expanded. The King's Speech, Inception, Black Swan, The Fighter and The Kids Are Alright are all more or less locked into the field of ten, and thus shouldn't have any problems here. The most likely spoiler is Another Year, whose scribe, Mike Leigh, often fares well with the Academy. It's hard to know just how much love Blue Valentine will receive tomorrow morning, so I wouldn't count that one out either. Same goes for both Biutiful and Get Low.

1. David Speider---The King's Speech
2. Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko---The Kids Are Alright
3. Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver & Paul Tamasy---The Fighter
4. Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz & John J. McLaughlin---Black Swan
5. Christopher Nolan---Inception
6. Mike Leigh---Another Year
7. Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis & Cami Delavigne---Blue Valentine
8. Chris Provenzano and C. Gaby Mitchell---Get Low
9. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Armando Bo & Nicolás Giacobone---Biutiful

How I Did: 4/5

Best Adapted Screenplay
        Yet again, one of the easier ones to narrow down because of the field of ten, though these Five are a bit less locked. The Social Network, Toy Story 3, and True Grit all seem pretty sealed in, and the fight for the two remaining spots will likely be similar to the battle for the same number of spots in the Best Picture Category. 127 Hours, The Town, and Winter's Bone are the three main contenders, and I'm going with The Town to be the one that gets left off. There are also a couple who are sneaking into the race late who could pull the surprise: The Way Back and Rabbit Hole. Don't forget early year favorites How to Train Your Dragon and Shutter Island. Also not to be dismissed is the small under-current of awards season love for The Ghost Writer.

1. Aaron Sorkin---The Social Network
2. Michael Arndt---Toy Story 3
3. Ethan Coen & Joel Coen---True Grit
4. Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini---Winter's Bone
5. Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy---127 Hours
6. Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard---The Town
7. Laeta Kalogridis---Shutter Island
8. Robert Harris & Roman Polanski---The Ghost Writer
9. Keith R. Clarke & David Weir---The Way Back
10. David Lindsay-Abaire---Rabbit Hole
11. William Davies, Dean DeBlois & Chris Sanders---How to Train Your Dragon

How I Did: 5/5

Best Supporting Actress
        I would say that this year's nominees are a bit more unpredictable than most, but the Supporting Actress category is in a league of its own. Though Melissa Leo has already picked up plenty of hardware for The Fighter, I still just don't buy her as being as solid a front-runner as the other categories have. Still, her and movie-mate, Amy Adams, are pretty much rock-solid locks at this point, as is Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech. After that, a lot has to do with what category people believe certain actresses belong to. Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) and Julianne Moore (The Kids Are Alright) have both gotten pushes despite being leads, and word on the street is that Lesley Manville (Another Year) will be gunning for Best Actress despite comparatively small screen time. Then there are the Black Swan ladies, Mila Kunis and Barbara Hershey, who are just about as likely as one another to snag a spot. Veteran clout could also land Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham) a spot. For the last two I've got to go with Jacki Weaver, whose Animal Kingdom performance appears to have more passionate support than many of the other dark horses, and Steinfeld, whose age I believe will help her commit category fraud.

1. Melissa Leo---The Fighter
2. Helena Bonham Carter---The King's Speech
3. Amy Adams---The Fighter
4. Hailee Steinfeld---True Grit
5. Jacki Weaver---Animal Kingdom
6. Mila Kunis---Black Swan
7. Lesley Manville---Another Year
8. Barbara Hershey---Black Swan
9. Julianne Moore---The Kids Are Alright
10. Miranda Richardson---Made in Dagenham

How I Did: 5/5

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